Study on the boundary of urban agglomeration development: A case study of Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration

Objectives: The coordinated development between cities is a necessary condition for the sustainable development of urban agglomeration. The urban development boundary can balance urban development with ecological and agricultural protection. Methods: Based on the perspective of "double evaluation" and combined with PLUS model and multi-objective planning, this study constructed a sustainable and coordinated development scenario, simulated the land use of Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration in 2035 under various scenarios, and studied the demarcation of urban development boundary. Results: (1) Compared with the natural development scenario, the urban construction land expansion under the sustainable and coordinated development scenario is more in line with the needs of the coordinated development of urban agglomeration, and the simulated land use pattern gives full play to the advantages of natural resources in the region. (2) The urban development boundary based on the scenario of sustainable and coordinated development is in line with the development pattern of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Ningbo as the development center of the Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration, and the special purpose area ensures the urban development and the protection of ecological resources and living environment; (3) A multi-objective planning model was established from the perspective of dual evaluation to maximize the positive and ecological benefits of future land use in the ShanghaiHangzhou Bay area, and the simulated land use distribution pattern was more reasonable. Conclusions: The method of urban development boundary demarcation adopted in this study can provide technical help for the demarcation of urban development boundary in China and urban agglomerations.