TEC Prediction of Ionosphere Based on Time Series Analysis

TEC is predicted by time series analysis through the ionosphere data sample released by International GPS Service.Time series of the TEC is decomposed into the trend item,periodic term and random item,then they are computed respectively.The number of model order is determined using the correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient.Predicted analysis of test is carried out through the data in 2008,the results indicate that the method can achieve high accuracy.The average relative accuracy of 7 d is 87.75%.The predicted value with its accuracy greater than 60% shares more than 95% of the total predicted value,greater than 60% has 72.6% of the total predicted value,and 95.3% of predicted residual is less than ±3 TECU.