Studies on the Prediction Model of People Trip Flow in Urban Aera

This thesis is to study the methods of establishing Trip Production Model by using regression analysis.Some problems on the selection of independent variables and regression diagnostics have been discussed.Two examples are used to compare alls election rules,and the results show consistance.The influences on the results deriving from the over influence points,high leverage points and outliers are studied.The general procedure for the selection of independent variables is shown in thesis,also the applicable methods of polynomial regression diagnostics,especially,the methods for detecting outliers.When dependent variable is affected by some element which couldn't be quantified,we can add the quanlitative variable to improve the results of regression.According to these studies,a method establishing Trip Production Model by using regression analysis has been suggest-ed in this thesis,which was used to set up the trip production model of Beijing,and the result is satisfactory.