Fitting and Prediction of Pole Motion Time Series Model

The cosine trend model and ARMA model for pole motion have been fitted andforecasted under the use of the data offered by IERS.Through the analysis of the experimen-tal results,we find the cosine trend model more suitable for analyzing the components of thepole motion.Meanwhile,ARMA model is more suitable for fitting pole motion time series,its fitting accuracy is higher than the cosine trend model and its prediction accuracy havereached an advanced level.