Multi‐scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Its Effects Under Requisition‐Compensation Balance of Arable Land

Objectives The requisition‐compensation balance is one of the important measures for farmland protection in China. During the development of cultivated land protection policies from traditional quantity protection to quantity‐quality‐ecology integration protection, few studies have examined future potential impacts of different requisition‐compensation balance policies.

Methods We take Zhaoyuan City, Shandong Province as an example to construct a multi‐scenario simulation model of land use change incorporating requisition‐compensation balance of arable land, design five simulation scenarios, namely, baseline scenario, quantity protection of cultivated land, quantity‐quality protection, quantity‐ecological protection and quantity‐quality‐ecological protection. Then we analyze the changes in quantity, productivity and habitat quality of arable land in 2030 under different protection strategies.

Results The results show that the requisition‐compensation balance policies will increase the quantity, grain yield and habitat quality of cultivated land by 7.2%, 0.63% and 0.70% on average compared with the baseline scenario. In the quantity‐quality‐ecological protection scenario, grain yield and habitat quality are likely to be higher than those in other scenarios, and their trade‐off relationships will be better reconciled.

Conclusions This work will provide solid support for evaluation of various requisition‐compensation balance strategies and adjustment of farmland protection policies.