基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用格局变化研究

Analysis and Simulation of Land-Use Temporal and Spatial Pattern Based on CA-Markov Model

  • 摘要: 以广州市1990年、2000年TM影像为数据源,通过分析斑块和景观两个层次的格局指数变化,研究了20世纪90年代广州市土地利用格局的时空特征。利用马尔柯夫模型和元胞自动机模型,对广州市2010年土地利用空间格局进行了预测。

     

    Abstract: The authors conducted a series of land-use landscape pattern metrics analyses based on Landsat TM remote sensing images in 1990 and 2000. The authors also simulate the scenarios of land-use pattern in 2010 by integrating the Markov process into cellular automata model. The results show that the extent of urban area has increased exponentially during the last ten years of the 20th century, area of constructions was rapid increasing, at the same time the arable land、woodland and unused land areas were decreasing. To simulate land-use change, a Markov-cellular automata model is presented.

     

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