Abstract: Regression analysis is often used in deformation analysis modeling，however，it is a static model. When the structure or physical properties of the monitoring object change，the static model will no longer be applicable. However，a varying coefficient regression model is a dynamic model and has greater flexibility and adaptability. So varying coefficient regression is introduced into dam deformation analysis. Local linear estimation is used to fit the varying coefficients. Both a simulation experiment and a real dam deformation monitoring data experiment show that a dam deformation model using varying coefficient regression is better than that using ordinary linear regression;and more precise when predicting deformation.