Spatial-temporal Pattern Analysis and Spatial Disparity Research on Provincial Total Fertility Rate in China
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摘要: 将探索性空间数据分析应用于低生育水平下的全国生育率区域差异研究,分析了1990～2000年省级总和生育率的时空演变趋势。研究表明,省级生育水平表现为显著正的空间自相关,且呈上升趋势,其中西藏、贵州两个潜在的极高值区域对空间自相关模式有很大的影响;全国仍呈现明显的东西差异,高值聚集模式由西部、中部向西部边缘收缩,西北、西南地区呈现显著性的高值聚集模式,空间差异较小,但四川比邻近地区的生育水平低;低值聚集模式从北部、沿海向中部扩张集中,空间差异较大,仅吉林、北京-天津、江苏表现显著。Abstract: Gobal spatial autocorrelation and local spatial association were applied in provincial fertility disparity research during low fertility period in 1990s,to reveal spatial-temporal pattern of fertility distribution.The results indicate that provincial fertility level in China has statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelation with up-rising temporal trend.Meanwhile,Xizang and Guizhou,these two regions of potential extreme high fertility rate have great contribution to the global Moran's I.Moreover,the divide of the east and the west still exists,specifically regions with significant high-high cluster pattern stably shrink to the north-west and the south-west,which shows these regions have little disparity with Sichuan region of low-high spatial outlier pattern;while regions with low-low cluster pattern spread from the north to the central,which suggests that they have much disparity with only Jilin,Beijing-Tianjin and Jiangsu as significant regions.
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Keywords:
- total fertility rate /
- spatial autocorrelation /
- spatial pattern /
- regional disparity
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