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摘要: 近百年来，全球正经历着以变暖为显著特征的变化，海水增温膨胀、陆地冰川和极地冰盖融化等因素导致全球海平面持续上升。北极新奥尔松地区现保存有典型的极地原始生态系统，客观准确地分析该地区的海平面变化，可以更好地为该地区自然生态环境监测和保护以及气候变化研究等提供基础。联合利用卫星高度计、验潮站和全球卫星导航系统(global navigation satellite system，GNSS)观测资料分析新奥尔松地区的海平面变化的线性趋势和季节性规律，通过同时段资料(1993-2018年)的分析显示，该地区地壳呈上升趋势，上升速率为(8.09±0.19) mm/a；验潮站相对海平面呈下降趋势，下降速率为(-7.31±0.36) mm/a；利用地壳运动修正后的绝对海平面上升速率为(0.78±0.41) mm/a，低于全球同期水平，与卫星高度计观测的绝对海平面变化结果具有很好的一致性，二者相差(0.23±0.46) mm/a。在进行区域海平面变化分析时，可利用GNSS修正验潮站相对海平面获得该区域的绝对海平面变化。利用修正后的海平面资料分析结果显示，新奥尔松地区海平面变化具有明显的季节性规律，每年10月-11月为季节高海平面期，3月-4月为季节低海平面期。通过海表面温度与海平面的相关性分析认为，随着海表面温度变化，海平面也发生相应的变化。Abstract:Objectives Global warming has become a significant climate change in the past 100 years. And the global mean sea level continues rising caused by the thermal expansion of sea water and the melting of land-based glacier and polar ice. The Ny-Alesund area in Arctic has preserved a typical primitive polar ecosystem. The objective and accurate analysis of sea level change in this area can better provide a basis for monitoring and protection of natural ecological environment, and for the research of climate change.Methods This paper analyzed the liner trend and seasonal variation of sea level change by using data of satellite altimeter, tide gauge station and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) along Ny-Alesund coast from 1993 to 2018.Results The observation data at tide gauge station show that the rate of crust rise is (8.09±0.19) mm/a, and the rate of relative sea level decline is (-7.31±0.36) mm/a. So the rate of absolute sea level rise is (0.78±0.41) mm/a, which is similar to the result from observation data of satellite alti-meter with the difference of (0.23±0.46) mm/a, and is lower than the rate of global sea level rise.Conclusions In the analysis of regional sea level change, we can get the absolute sea level rise with correction of tide gauge station by GNSS. The relative sea level change corrected by GNSS is characterized by significant seasonal features in Ny-Alesund. The period of seasonal high sea level is from October to November, and the period of seasonal low sea level is from March to April. The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature and sea level shows that the sea level changes with sea surface temperature.
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致谢: 中国北极黄河站2018年科学考察“冰川运动和物质平衡”监测组在数据采集和分析中提供了帮助，在此表示感谢。
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图 1 1993-2018年新奥尔松地区平均海平面和GNSS高程距平值变化
Figure 1. Anomaly Values of MSL and GNSS Elevation from 1993 to 2018 in Ny-Alesund
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图 3 1993-2018年新奥尔松地区平均海平面和海表面温度距平值变化
Figure 3. Anomaly Values of MSL and SST from 1993 to 2018 in Ny-Alesund
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图 4 新奥尔松地区平均海平面和海表面温度的互相关函数图
Figure 4. Cross-Correlation Function Between MSL and SST in Ny-Alesund
表 1 新奥尔松验潮站附近的GNSS观测站
Table 1 GNSS Stations Attached to Ny-Alesund Tide Gauge Station
站点 时间序列周期/年 坐标 与验潮站距离/km 管理 NYAL 1993-2018 11.865 00°E, 78.929 44°N 1.50 挪威 NYA1 1997-2018 11.865 28°E, 78.929 44°N 1.55 挪威 NYA2 2000-2018 11.858 61°E, 78.930 28°N 1.70 挪威 NYAC 1993-2014 11.865 28°E, 78.929 44°N 1.55 挪威 CNYR 2004-2018 11.935 28°E, 78.922 50°N 0.67 中国 
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表 2 海平面与GNSS高程的显著周期
Table 2 Periods of Sea Level and GNSS Elevation
观测内容 显著周期/a 验潮站海平面 13.0, 6.5, 1.0, 0.5 卫星高度计海平面 12.9, 6.4, 1.0, 0.5 GNSS高程 10.8, 3.6, 1.0, 0.5
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