顾及空间交互作用的城市群联动空间增长模拟——以武汉都市区为例

Modeling the Spatial Expansion of Urban Agglomeration Considering Their Spatial Interaction:A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan Area

  • 摘要: 随着区域城市化与城市区域化的发展,城市群成为中国城市化进程中最引人注目的地区,研究城市群联动空间增长动态也成为了当前研究热点。在城市扩张的研究中,传统以元胞自动机(cellular automaton,CA)为代表的城市扩张模拟方法主要针对单一的城市展开,缺乏对城市群空间交互作用和联动增长效应的建模,难以真实反映城市群的空间扩张过程。通过引入城市流模型来量化城市之间的空间交互作用,并将其作为转换规则嵌入CA模型,构建了一种顾及空间交互作用的城市群联合空间增长扩张过程分析模型,并以武汉都市区为例,模拟了武汉都市区(1个主城区+6个远郊区)的城市扩张过程。与传统的Logistic回归CA模型对比,结果表明,模型模拟精度更高,可以在一定程度上反映城市发展,尤其是城市群联动增长扩张的特征和规律。

     

    Abstract: Spatial interaction in urban agglomeration is an important driving force of urbanization in contemporary China. Most of the research based on cellular automata has focused on simulating one single city, and does not factually represent the more expansive processes of urban agglomeration. How to quantify the spatial interaction between cities and combine them in a CA model is an issue when simulating the evolutionary processes of urban agglomeration. This paper proposes an urban agglomeration simulation model based on spatial interaction(UASMBSI) that is better suited for simulating the sprawl of urban agglomeration by combining an urban flow model with a CA model. The UASMBSI is applied to simulate the urban sprawl in the Wuhan metropolitan area, with more accurate simulation results than the CA model that does not account for spatial interaction. A case study not only indicated that the spatial interaction plays an important role in simulating the sprawl of urban agglomeration, but also suggestes that the UASMBSI can represent the characteristics and rules for city development, especially the expansion of urban agglomerations.

     

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