基于事件树和模糊理论的GIS动态地质灾害评估

GIS Dynamic Risk Assessment of Geological Disasters Based on Event Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Theory

摘要: 我国目前对地质灾害评估的研究主要是基于静态的,而实际上地质灾害是一个动态变化的过程,应进行动态地质灾害评估的研究。首次探讨用事件树分析和模糊多层次综合评判结合GIS,进行动态地质灾害评估的研究,选择福建省泉州市德化县浔中镇为实例,通过选用201208台风“苏拉”,0802:15:00、0803:10:00与0803:23:00等3个时刻的地质灾害情况,分别作出评价风险图,预测地质灾害的动态变化趋势,从而采取相应的地质灾害防范的措施。其研究结果对地质灾害的防范具有一定的指导作用,能减少一定损失。

Abstract: Riskassessmentresearchongeologicaldisastersmainlyfocusesonstaticdisasters,butgeo logicaldisastershoweveraredynamicprocess.Thestudyofdynamicgeologicaldisastersthereforeareapressingtopicatpresent.Thepaperfirstlydiscussestheuseofeventtreeanalysisandmulti levelfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationcombinedwithGIS,withtheXunzhongtownofDehuacountryinQuanzhoucity,Fujianprovinceasthestudyarea;selectingthesuratyphoonofAugust2012,andthegeologicaldisastersofAugust2nd15,August3rd10andAugust3rd23tomadeaevaluationriskmaptopredictthedevelopmentofdynamicchangewiththistrendofgeologicaldisastersrespectivelytosupportgeologicaldisasterpreventionmeasures.Theresultssuggestthatsuchtechniquesmightplayaguidingroleinprotectionfromgeologicaldisastersandcouldreduceloss.