Counterfactual Scenario Simulation and Evaluation of the Land-Use and Land-Cover Change of Jiayu County
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摘要: 引入了反事实情景模拟方法来模拟土地利用变化的历史,通过重构土地利用变化历史情景来辅助评价土地利用政策实施效果。以我国的耕地保护政策对粮食安全和城市扩张影响为例,构建耕地保护政策干预下的事实情景和假设无耕地保护政策影响的反事实情景,并借助CLUE-S模型进行土地利用变化情景模拟。通过比较两种模拟结果在耕地数量、产能、空间分布以及城市建设用地数量、效益和空间扩张的差异,实现对耕地保护政策实施效果的评价。实例研究表明,现行的耕地保护政策在遏制耕地流失、提高粮食产量、调整耕地及建设用地空间布局等方面取得了积极效果。Abstract: Scenario simulation of land-use and land-cover change is gaining importance in global change research and for sustainable use of land resources.Most of the existing research has focused on simulating and identifying the possible land use allocation in the future.How to represent historic land use change under different scenarios is an issue for assessing the relative effect of implemented policies.An innovative counterfactual simulation model was proposed for assessing the effects of China’s farmland protection policies on food security and urban sprawl.The CLUE-s model and GM(1,1) approach were combined to forecast land use changes and simulate their spatial locations in a study area.Jiayu County was taken as an example to test the validity of the proposed model.The results showed that farmland protection policies played an effective role in reducing the rate of cultivated land loss,restricting the expansion of disorderly construction and optimizing the spatial distribution of land-use allocations in Jiayu County.
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Keywords:
- land use dynamics /
- counterfactual scenario simulation /
- CLUE-S model
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