Volume 38 Issue 9
Sep.  2013
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FENG Mengzhe, HE Jianhua, TANG Qinghui. Counterfactual Scenario Simulation and Evaluation of the Land-Use and Land-Cover Change of Jiayu County[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2013, 38(9): 1122-1125.
Citation: FENG Mengzhe, HE Jianhua, TANG Qinghui. Counterfactual Scenario Simulation and Evaluation of the Land-Use and Land-Cover Change of Jiayu County[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2013, 38(9): 1122-1125.
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Counterfactual Scenario Simulation and Evaluation of the Land-Use and Land-Cover Change of Jiayu County

  • 1School of Resource & Environmental Science,Wuhan University,129 Luoyu Road,Wuhan 430079,China;2Key Laboratory of Geographic Information System,Ministry of Education,Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road,Wuhan 430079,China;3School of Management of Qingdao Technological University,2 Changjiang Middle Road,Qingdao 266520,China

Funds: 国家863计划资助项目(2011AA120304)
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  • Received Date: April 19, 2013
  • Revised Date: April 19, 2013
  • Published Date: September 04, 2013
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  • Scenario simulation of land-use and land-cover change is gaining importance in global change research and for sustainable use of land resources.Most of the existing research has focused on simulating and identifying the possible land use allocation in the future.How to represent historic land use change under different scenarios is an issue for assessing the relative effect of implemented policies.An innovative counterfactual simulation model was proposed for assessing the effects of China’s farmland protection policies on food security and urban sprawl.The CLUE-s model and GM(1,1) approach were combined to forecast land use changes and simulate their spatial locations in a study area.Jiayu County was taken as an example to test the validity of the proposed model.The results showed that farmland protection policies played an effective role in reducing the rate of cultivated land loss,restricting the expansion of disorderly construction and optimizing the spatial distribution of land-use allocations in Jiayu County.
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    蒙吉军严汾,赵春红,. 大城市边缘区土地利用变化模拟研究——以北京市昌平区为例[J]. 应用基础与工程科学学报. 2010(02)[2] 邓祥征林英志,黄河清,. 土地系统动态模拟方法研究进展[J]. 生态学杂志. 2009(10)[3] 傅晓霞,吴利学,. 中国地区差异的动态演进及其决定机制:基于随机前沿模型和反事实收入分布方法的分析[J]. 世界经济. 2009(05)[4] 唐华俊吴文斌,杨鹏,陈佑启,Peter H.Verburg,. 土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)模型研究进展[J]. 地理学报. 2009(04)[5] 刘小平黎夏,张啸虎,陈刚强,李少英,陈逸敏,. 人工免疫系统与嵌入规划目标的城市模拟及应用[J]. 地理学报. 2008(08)
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