Spatial-temporal Pattern Analysis and Spatial Disparity Research on Provincial Total Fertility Rate in China

Gobal spatial autocorrelation and local spatial association were applied in provincial fertility disparity research during low fertility period in 1990s,to reveal spatial-temporal pattern of fertility distribution.The results indicate that provincial fertility level in China has statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelation with up-rising temporal trend.Meanwhile,Xizang and Guizhou,these two regions of potential extreme high fertility rate have great contribution to the global Moran's I.Moreover,the divide of the east and the west still exists,specifically regions with significant high-high cluster pattern stably shrink to the north-west and the south-west,which shows these regions have little disparity with Sichuan region of low-high spatial outlier pattern;while regions with low-low cluster pattern spread from the north to the central,which suggests that they have much disparity with only Jilin,Beijing-Tianjin and Jiangsu as significant regions.