Analysis of Changes in Maritime Transport Networks for Strategic Materials Affected by Attacks in the Red Sea

As a critical mode of transportation for global trade, the security of maritime shipping is essential to international commerce. Recent armed conflicts in the Red Sea region have significantly endangered the safe passage through this vital shipping lane and have had profound effects on the global supply chain of strategic commodities. Although an increasing volume of research focuses on tracking and analyzing the longterm impacts of the shipping system following major events, there remains an urgent need to swiftly capture and analyze real-time conflicts. Such research is critical for timely responses to the challenges confronting the maritime system, thus helping to mitigate negative impacts. We first analyze changes in the number of shipping routes to assess the impact on countries across different geographic regions and geopolitical relations worldwide. Next, based on material transport changes, we evaluate shifts in the tonnage of five strategic materials and the weighted importance of these materials. Furthermore, by examining alterations in the strategic materials maritime network, we identify the affected nodes and edges in the network. Subsequently, we assess the evolution patterns of five strategic material networks by analyzing changes in network indicators. Experiment results show that: in terms of affected maritime routes, there was no decline in the number of average daily voyages for countries in Asia and Africa, while all other continents experienced a decreasing trend in voyages. The rate of decline among affected countries was notably more significant compared to unaffected ones. From the perspective of strategic materials, iron, crude oil, and LPG shipments dominated the traffic. Except for LNG, which exhibited an increase in average daily traffic, other strategic materials displayed a similar downward trend by the end of the quarter. At the network evolution level, the core nodes of the maritime network remained stable in the face of shocks. Different strategic material networks demonstrated distinct adaptation patterns, with grain and LPG networks showing an increase in the average shortest path compared to the pre-shock period, while crude oil, LPG, and iron ore networks exhibited a more aggregated and short-distance adaptation pattern. Iron ore demonstrated high stability, energy materials (LNG, LPG, and crude oil) exhibited moderate stability, and the food maritime network was the most volatile. In short, we captured and analyzed the impacts of unforeseen events on the maritime transport network in a timely manner by integrating data from various sources and employing a limited time window and geographic scope approach. The assessment reveals significant disruptions in global transport patterns within the Red Sea region, highlighting the importance of maintaining global trade flows and supply chain stability in the context of globalization.