The analysis of the impact of EOP prediction errors on the orbit determination of deep-space spacecraft

Objectives: Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) is an important conversion parameter between the Earth body-fixed system and the celestial reference system. Due to the complex data processing process, the EOP obtained by space geodesy technology has a delay about several days to two weeks. With the development of China's space industry, in order to guarantee the successful implementation of deep space exploration missions, it is necessary to study and analyze the influence of EOP prediction errors on the orbit determination when real-time EOP accurate observations cannot be used. Methods: We have analyzed the prediction errors of Bulletin A issued by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), and processed the radio-tracking data from Mars Express (MEX). The impact of EOP prediction errors on the orbit determination was compared and analyzed by processing radio tracking data from MEX and simulation data from asteroid 2016HO3 probe. Results and Conclusions: The results show that the orbiting errors of MEX generated by EOP predictions are mainly in the tangential and normal direction, and the UT1-UTC prediction errors are the main error terms in the precision orbiting of the deep space spacecraft when using Doppler data. The precision orbiting errors have no absolute linear relationship with the EOP prediction time span, but are strongly correlated with the UT1-UTC prediction error values, and the error of orbit determination increases with the range rate for the same UT1-UTC prediction error.