Influence of Urban Factors on the COVID-19 Epidemic: A Case Study of Wuhan City

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a major public health emergency, it is of great significance to study the influence of urban spatial factors on the development of epidemic situation for the future urban safety issues. Wuhan is affected most heavily by this epidemic situation. Based on Sina Weibo data posted in the core area of Wuhan city, we reveal the spatial distribution pattern of COVID-19 epidemic and its impacts in different urban areas of the city. According to the major suspected transmission routes and related factors of the epidemic, indicators of social population, urban morphology, urban facilities, and urban functions, are selected for validation. Through gridding the research area into uniform analytical units, we reveal the effect, spatial heterogeneity, and influence area of these factors, using the geographical weighted regression model. The result indicates that some factors, e.g. the densities of major hospitals, commercial facilities, subway stations, construction scale, aging, and land-use mixture, present significant influence on the epidemic severity.This research helps to explain and perform the mechanism of occurrence and spread of the epidemic in urban space. The analysis and validation of these urban factors help to adopt effective urban planning and architectural design responses in the future crisis, as help decision makers formulate more scientific and reasonable prevention strategies, and avoid or reduce the impact on vulnerable areas and groups in advance.