Extract Short Impending Abnormal Indicator from Deformation Data in Yunnan Province

This paper presents a comprehensive predictor indicator for surface strain, and aims to achieve short-term and impending earthquake prediction based on GPS (global positioning system) observation data. We obtain the velocity field of the Yunnan area from continuous GPS observation data with the GAMIT/GLOBK(High precision GPS data processing software) software. The Yunnan region was divided into 56 grids by interpolation and created a uniform displacement field. We obtain the surface strain time series of each grid. By evaluating and synthesizing the earthquake response capacity of each grid, a short temporary anomaly identification indicator was extracted. Since 2011, there were 20 earthquakes with Magnitude greater than five, occuring in Yunnan, 19 times of them were accurately predicted, with one omission and five false detections, Tested in practice with GPS observations recorded in Yunnan area, this indicator can not only predict the time but also the epicenter of earthquakes that happened in Yunnan area. It can be used to forecast future earthquakes in Yunnan region.