Application of Space-Time Auto-Regressive Model in Dam Deformation Analysis

Modelsandmethodsofanalysisfordeformationmonitoringarealwayssetforthetimeseriesdataofonemonitoringpoint.Anauto regressivemodelcanbeusedformodelingdamdeformationtoforecastthedisplacement.Inthetraditionalmethod,itisnecessarytoestablishtheauto regressivemodelforeverymonitoringpoint.Tosomeextent,thetraditionalmethodhastomodeldifferentmod elsforeverymonitoringpointonthedamwhichmakeusdothesamethingmanytimes.However,asawholestructure,monitoringpointsonadamarerelatedtoeachother.Thetraditionaltimeauto re gressivemodeldoesnotconsidertherelationshipbetweendifferentmonitoringpointsonthedam.Toconsiderthespatialcorrelationbetweenmeasuringpointsandtherebyestablishaunifiedmodel,aspace timeauto regressivemethodisusedtomodelthedisplacementsoftheWuqiangxidam.Space timeauto regressionisjustusedonceforallthemonitoringpointsonthedamwhichsavetimeofpro cessingspace timeseries.Byanalyzingandforecastingthehorizontaldisplacementsofthedam,ourtestresultsshowthataspace timeauto regressivemodelcanbeusedforfittingandforecastingdis placementseriesbothinthetemporalandspatialdomains.