GIS Dynamic Risk Assessment of Geological Disasters Based on Event Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Theory
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Abstract
Riskassessmentresearchongeologicaldisastersmainlyfocusesonstaticdisasters,butgeo logicaldisastershoweveraredynamicprocess.Thestudyofdynamicgeologicaldisastersthereforeareapressingtopicatpresent.Thepaperfirstlydiscussestheuseofeventtreeanalysisandmulti levelfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationcombinedwithGIS,withtheXunzhongtownofDehuacountryinQuanzhoucity,Fujianprovinceasthestudyarea;selectingthesuratyphoonofAugust2012,andthegeologicaldisastersofAugust2nd15,August3rd10andAugust3rd23tomadeaevaluationriskmaptopredictthedevelopmentofdynamicchangewiththistrendofgeologicaldisastersrespectivelytosupportgeologicaldisasterpreventionmeasures.Theresultssuggestthatsuchtechniquesmightplayaguidingroleinprotectionfromgeologicaldisastersandcouldreduceloss.
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