林安琪, 吴浩, 韩磊, 岑鲁豫. 面向非洲猪瘟疫情的社交媒体信息提取与舆情挖掘[J]. 武汉大学学报 ( 信息科学版). DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20210406
引用本文: 林安琪, 吴浩, 韩磊, 岑鲁豫. 面向非洲猪瘟疫情的社交媒体信息提取与舆情挖掘[J]. 武汉大学学报 ( 信息科学版). DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20210406
LIN Anqi, WU Hao, HAN Lei, CEN Luyu. Social media information extraction and public opinion mining for African swine fever epidemic[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20210406
Citation: LIN Anqi, WU Hao, HAN Lei, CEN Luyu. Social media information extraction and public opinion mining for African swine fever epidemic[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20210406

面向非洲猪瘟疫情的社交媒体信息提取与舆情挖掘

Social media information extraction and public opinion mining for African swine fever epidemic

  • 摘要: 重大动物疫病的疫情传播与舆情演化研究,对提升疫情防控与舆论引导水平具有重要意义。社交媒体平台中产生了大量带有地理信息的文本,为开展动物疫情等突发事件的研究提供了新的途径。本文以从新浪微博中提取的疫情信息为基础,构建了非洲猪瘟传播时空特征分析与公众舆情挖掘模型。首先引入Mann-Kendall突变点检测方法客观划分疫情的传播周期并考察不同阶段的空间分布特征,再利用隐含狄利克雷主题聚类模型刻画不同阶段之间舆论话题的演化关系,最后基于地理探测器方法探究影响舆论关注度的主要因素。结果表明:(1)基于微博文本提取的非洲猪瘟疫情信息精度较高,非洲猪瘟在中国的传播呈现从东北向西南方向扩散的趋势,并经历了潜伏期、暴发期、波动期和衰退期四个阶段;(2)在每个阶段,舆论围绕疫情本身和特定的衍生话题展开,民众情绪逐渐从消极向积极转变;(3)各地区对非洲猪瘟舆情的关注度受猪肉消耗量和产量的影响显著,而与教育水平和城镇化水平关系不大。

     

    Abstract: The study on the spread of major animal diseases and its evolution of public opinion are of great significance to the improvement of epidemic prevention and public opinion guidance. With the development of Web 2.0 technology and the popularity of smart phones, various forms of social media platforms become important channels for obtaining, sharing and discussing hot topics. A large number of texts with geographical location information were generated, which have provided a new way for the research of animal epidemic and other emergencies. Taking Sina microblog data during African swine fever spread in our country from 2018 to 2019 as the case study, the objective of this work is to establish the spread spatio-temporal characteristics analysis and public opinion mining model. Firstly, the Mann-Kendall mutation detection method was introduced to objectively divide the epidemic transmission cycle and investigate the spatial distribution characteristics of different stages. Then, the latent dirichlet allocation theme clustering model was used to describe the evolution of public opinion topics among different ASF epidemic stages. Finally, the primary factors influencing public opinion attention were explored based on the geographical detector method. The results show that the spread of African swine fever in China showed a trend of spreading from northeast to southwest, and experienced four stages: incubation, outbreak, fluctuation and recession. At each stage, public opinion around outbreak itself and the specific theme is derived, and with the development of epidemic derivative subject is more abundant, popular sentiment also from at each stage, public opinion around outbreak itself and the specific derivative topics, and derivative topics became more abundant with the development of epidemic, public sentiment also gradually changed from negative to positive. Regional awareness of ASF is strongly influenced by pork consumption and production, rather than by local education and urbanization levels.

     

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