PSHA模型的算法改进与中国地区未来地震概率评估

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（40930531, 41101360,41101348）;江苏省高校自然科学研究基金资助项目（11KJB420001）;江苏省优势学科建设工程资助项目.

详细信息

Probability Estimation of Future Earthquakes in China Based on Improved PSHA Model

1 Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China; 2 Department of Geography, Southwest Texas State University, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA

摘要: 考虑到PSHA模型对未来地震预测特别是大震预测能起到很好的参考分析作用,尝试结合能量分布模型对其进行了改进,并以中国及周边地区200 a内的地震历史记录为基础,利用原始PSHA模型以及改进后的PSHA模型分别计算了中国及邻近地区2000~2010年间5级以上地震发生的概率,并对两种结果进行了比较分析,最终证明改进后的PSHA模型具有更好的可靠性。
- 地震概率评估 /
- 大震预测 /
- 改进的PSHA模型
Abstract: Considering the importance of PSHA model in earthquakes forecasting, by using the catalog in the 200 years in China, we tried to improve the original PSHA model with combining seismic energy distribution model, and computed the probability of earthquakes in a specific area in China with time\|span T based on both the improved PSHA model and the original model. Finally the experimental results show that the improved model is more efficiency and reliable than the original one.
- seismic rate estimation /
- earthquakes forecasting /
- improved PSHA model

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