基于核主成分分析和粒子群优化支持向量机的滑坡位移预测
Prediction of Landslide Displacement Based on KPCA and PSO-SVR
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摘要: 利用核主成分分析法对滑坡位移影响因子进行特征提取,以获得的主成分作为支持向量机的特征向量建立支持向量机模型,其中模型参数通过粒子群算法进行选择优化,构建出核主成分分析和粒子群优化支持向量机协同模型,对滑坡相对位移进行预测。预测结果的平均绝对误差和相对误差分别为0.760和7.563%,与其他预测模型相比,其拟合和泛化能力最优,表明核主成分分析和粒子群优化支持向量机协同模型的预测结果与实际监测值具有很好的一致性。Abstract: Taking Baijiabao landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area for example,the kernel principal component analysis(KPCA) was employed to extract main features from influential factors data in order to obtain the principal component,which was used as the feature of support vector machine(SVM),and then building the displacement prediction model,the SVM model parameter of which was optimized by the particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm.Finally,the cooperative optimization model based on KPCA and PSO-SVR was proposed.And it was applied to predict displacement of landslide based on influential factors.The average absolute error and relative error of the prediction results were 0.760 and 7.563% respectively.By comparison with other forecast models,it was found that the fitting and generalization of this model are the best.The results indicate that the predicted value of the model is consistent with the monitoring data.It plays a key role in landslide hazard prediction and warning.