利用时间序列分析预报电离层TEC
TEC Prediction of Ionosphere Based on Time Series Analysis
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摘要: 以IGS发布的电离层总电子含量(total electron content,TEC)数据为样本,利用时间序列分析进行预报。将TEC时间序列分解为趋势项、周期项和随机项的组合,并利用相关系数和偏相关系数确定模型阶数。对IGS提供的2008年TEC数据进行预报分析,结果表明,采用时间序列分析能达到较高精度,预报7 d时的平均相对精度为87.75%,预报精度大于60%的预报值占所有预报值的95%以上,预报精度大于85%的预报值占所有预报值的72.6%,95.3%的预报残差小于±3 TECU。Abstract: TEC is predicted by time series analysis through the ionosphere data sample released by International GPS Service.Time series of the TEC is decomposed into the trend item,periodic term and random item,then they are computed respectively.The number of model order is determined using the correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient.Predicted analysis of test is carried out through the data in 2008,the results indicate that the method can achieve high accuracy.The average relative accuracy of 7 d is 87.75%.The predicted value with its accuracy greater than 60% shares more than 95% of the total predicted value,greater than 60% has 72.6% of the total predicted value,and 95.3% of predicted residual is less than ±3 TECU.
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