灰色动态预测方法及其在变形预测中的应用
Integrated Dynamic Forecasting by Grey Numbers of Identical Dimensions and its Application in Deformation Forecasting
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摘要: 在分析比较了GM(1,1)预测模型的不足之后,提出一种实时引入新信息的等维新息和等维灰数递补组合动态预测方法。首先同常规预测法作了比较,然后进行了三峡链子崖危岩体变形发展趋势预测及有效性验证。Abstract: By analyizing the limits of GM(1,1)forecasting model,this paper gives a new method,which integrates dynamic forecasting method with recent information and recursive compensations by grey numbers of identical dimensions. This method has been applied to the Lianzi Cliff deformation dy monitoring and prediction with proved efficiency. The analysis showed that the Lianzi Cliff is currently in the stable developing mode.