珠江三角洲洪潮实时预报关键技术

key technologies  of real-time  flood  and storm sur ge forecasting for pearl river delta

  • 摘要: 基于洪潮预报的时效性和准确性要求考虑洪水天文潮风暴潮等复杂因素的相互作用建立了覆盖整个珠江三角洲网河区及口外海域的二维水动力学洪潮实时预报数值模型 模型中采用非结构有限体积法确保水量守恒引入半隐欧拉-拉格朗日模式提高计算效率 通过嵌套南中国海潮汐风暴潮耦合模型获取边界复合水位同时利用回归系数法实时校正糙率系数提高模型的预测精度 在此基础上利用web services网络地理信息系统webgis等技术对计算演示分析等组件进行集成建立了基于三层bs架构模式的珠江三角洲洪潮实时预报系统并成功应用于黑格比200814号等台风暴潮的过程预报

     

    Abstract: a 2dhydrodynamic  real -time  forecasting model for pearl river delta considering the  interaction  among floodtide  and storm surge built based on the demands  efficienc y and accurac y.the study area  of  the model covers whole river  networkei ght  river mouths of  the delta and the  sea bay.the finitevolume method based on unstructured mesh adopted  to  insure mass conservation.by introducing asemi -implicit  eulerian-lagrangian  al gorithm to  the process  of  solving shallow water equationsthecomputational  efficienc y improved.by combining the  tide  and storm surge model of  south china seato get  the offshore  boundary and using re gression  coefficient method to  correct mannings coeffi-cientsthe precision of  the numerical  solution  is  effectivel y advanced.flood and storm surge real -timeforecasting system pearl river delta developed based on three-tier  browserserver  framework.it  inte grates  the  components of  simulation visualization  and anal ysis  using web services and webgistechnolo gies.the  application  of typhoon hagupit200814 forecasting indicates  the key technologies  presented  in paper  can  improve  the  efficienc y and accurac y of  flood  and storm surge forecasting tosome  extent.

     

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