Abstract: Considering the practical background of few data and unpredictable probability distribution in the domain of equipments test and training,a novel trajectory prediction method based on MGM(1,N) model was proposed to predict the location of moving object such as unmanned aerial vehicle.Firstly,the principle of MGM(1,N) model and the parameters estimation algorithm were introduced.Then a MGM(1,3) model for 3 location coordinates of a moving object was carried out and the implementation steps was illustrated accordingly.Finally the simulation through the aviation data of an unmanned air vehicle was utilized to prove the validity of such method.The simulation results show that the proposed approach is feasible and effective,which can predict the location information of any time in the next period with high prediction precision.