融合多源数据研究积石山地震灾害及人口伤亡时空演化

Research on Spatiotemporal Evolution of Disaster and Population Casualties in Jishishan Earthquake by Fusing MultiSource Data

  • 摘要: 2023-12-18甘肃省临夏回族自治州积石山县发生Ms6.2级地震,是继2022年泸定Ms6.8级地震后在青藏高原东缘-东北缘地区发生的又一次强震事件。为研究此次地震灾害信息,本文利用Sentinel-1卫星升降轨雷达影像确定同震形变场,结果表明本次地震具有逆冲特性,为逆冲型地震,其中升、降轨同震形变场沿视线向形变都以抬升为主,分别为7.51 cm和7.91 cm;余震精定位结果显示,本次地震可能发生在一个西北或东南走向的发震断层;同时,分析余震精定位和近场测站时序信号,地震台站(N0028)加速度表明地震造成了持续性的破坏;GNSS测站(LXJS)时序指出地震在北和东方向上产生了1.986 cm和1.377cm的永久位移;银川、大武以及固原连续重力观测台站发现本次地震对积石山区域的断裂活动引起了显著的地表同震重力变化。为确定此次震灾人口伤亡情况,探究此次震灾的"同震重灾"特征,本文融合多源数据构建震灾人口伤亡时空演化模型,将积石山震例参数作为模型的输入因子,预测得到的主震死亡149人,准确率为98.45%。通过余震时序预测,余震死亡3人,共计死亡152人,与实报151人相差1人,表明该模型能很好地进行人口伤亡预测。可以发现,开展山区复杂环境下的积石山地震灾区灾害及人口伤亡时空演化研究,既能为灾后救援和灾后重建提供科学的指导和支持,又能为今后同类型灾害防范和监灾减灾工作提供宝贵的参考信息。

     

    Abstract: Object: The purpose of this study was to construct a spatiotemporal evolution model of population casualties in Jishishan by integrating multi-source data, and to estimate the casualties in Jishishan area in the complex environment of Jishishan by combining the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of Jishishan. Method: This study is to develop a spatiotemporal model for predicting population casualties in earthquake disasters using multi-source data. By integrating the co-seismic deformation field obtained from Sentinel-1 satellite's orbital up and down radar with time series records from various near-field stations (N0028, LXJS, Yinchuan, Dawu, and Guyuan) as well as accurate positioning results of aftershocks, we were able to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the Jishi Mountain area and predict population casualties resulting from the earthquake. Results: The results show that the earthquake has the characteristics of thrusting. The deformation of the ascending and descending coseismic deformation fields along the line of sight is mainly uplift, which is 7.51 cm and 7.91 cm respectively. The precise location of aftershocks shows that the earthquake may have occurred on an NW or SE striking fault. At the same time, after analyzing the precise location of the aftershock and the time series signal of the near-field station, the acceleration of the seismic station (N0028) indicates that the earthquake has caused sustained damage. The time series of GNSS stations (LXJS) indicates that the permanent displacement of 1.986 cm and 1.377 cm in the north and east directions is produced by the earthquake. The Yinchuan, Dawu and Guyuan stations have found that the fault activity in the Jishishan region caused significant coseismic gravity variation. To determine the casualties of the earthquake disaster and explore the characteristics of the "co-seismic severe disaster". The spatiotemporal evolution model of earthquake casualty is constructed by multi-source data, and the parameters of the Jishishan earthquake case are used as input factors of the model. The predicted result is 149 people died in the main earthquake, and the accuracy is 98.45%. Through the aftershock time series prediction, 3 people died in the aftershock, 152 people died in total, which is 1 person more than the actual 151 people, which shows that the model can predict the population casualties very well. Conlusions: It can be found that the study on the spatial-temporal evolution of the population casualties in the Jishishan earthquake disaster area under the complex mountain environment can not only provide scientific guidance and support for post-disaster rescue and reconstruction but also provide valuable reference information for the prevention, monitoring, and mitigation of similar disasters in the future.

     

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