耦合大数据与空间综合模拟的广深港第二高铁选线方法

Coupling Big Data and Synthetic Spatial Simulation for Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong High-speed Railway Alignment

  • 摘要: 粤港澳大湾区城市间联系日益紧密,交通出行迅猛增长。大湾区现有的公路和铁路网络已难以支撑日益增长的出行需求。现有设施选址模型从地形、交通、人口、生态等维度设计优化目标,以生成适宜性最优的线路方案,但并未考虑重大基础设施建设对区域发展的促进作用。针对广深港第二高铁,本文耦合大数据和空间综合模拟模型发展基础设施选线方法。利用现有铁路网络、高速公路、人口密度、地区生产总值、地质构造、土地利用、生态保护区边界、数字高程模型、水系边界等多源地理大数据,利用叠置分析、缓冲区分析等方法生成高质量的高铁线路。发展“国土-人口-经济-交通”综合模拟模型,预测高速铁路未来发展情景。在此基础上,构建结合城市、企业和个体等多利益主体的指标体系,计算高速铁路建设的效益与费用,比较分析多个选线方案的优劣。实验结果表明经过广州白云机场、广州知识城、东莞松山湖、深圳前海和香港北部都会区的北部线串联了四个城市的未来发展区域,具有充分利用既有线路,提升居民出行便利等特点。本文研究成果不仅为广深港第二高铁线路选线提供了数据与模型支撑,也为城市群重大基础设施选址提供有益参考。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: The existing roads and railways in the Greater Bay Area are hard to fulfilling the growing travel demand. Current facility location models consider terrain, traffic, population, ecology, etc. to generate the suitable route schemes, They ignore the promoting effect of major infrastructure construction on regional development. For the location of major infrastructure such as high-speed railway, factors such as promoting land development, and driving the economic and social development of the region should also be taken into account. To fill this gap, this study combines big data and spatial synthetic simulation model to develop an intelligent high-speed railway alignment method. Methods: Multi-source geographic big data such as railway network, highways, population, gross regional product, and digital elevation model are used to generate high-quality high-speed railway candidate lines. The spatial synthetic simulation model for land, population, economy and transportation was developed to predict the future development scenario of high-speed railway. Considering multi-stakeholders, including the city, enterprises and individuals, the benefits and costs of the new high-speed railway is calculated and compared. Results: The experimental results in show that the best northern Line connects the future development areas of four cities through Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, Guangzhou Knowledge City, Dongguan Songshan Lake, Shenzhen Qianhai and Hong Kong Northern Metropolitan Area. Under the influence of this high-speed railroad, the new construction land reached 92 km2, the additional population was 970,000, and the additional GDP was 849.5 billion yuan, which shows a significant advantage over other alignment strategies, and the line has the characteristics of fully utilizing the existing lines and enhancing the convenience of residents' travel. Upon completion, it will significantly shorten the travelling time in the core urban area and further promote the development of the Greater Bay Area. Conclusions: The results not only provide data and model support for the selection of the second Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway line, but also provide useful reference for the location of major infrastructure in urban agglomeration.

     

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