基于多源数据的武汉都市发展区城乡高温脆弱性评估对比

Comparative of Urban and Rural High Temperature Vulnerability Assessment in Wuhan Metropolis Based on Multi-source Data

  • 摘要: 在全球变暖及城乡融合发展的双重背景下,高温对城镇与乡村居民健康及社会经济的消极影响愈演愈烈。科学评估城乡高温脆弱性并对比其差异,有利于为城乡地区的气候适应性策略提供差异性指引。本研究在城乡差异视角下,以武汉都市发展区为例,整合多源数据测度城乡社区高温暴露度、敏感性、适应性因子,评估城乡社区高温脆弱性空间分布与集聚特征差异,识别并比较不同高温致脆因子类型,以此提出针对城乡社区的差异性防范策略。结果表明:①城镇与乡村社区的高温脆弱性在空间上呈现差异性分布格局,城镇社区表征为由内向外逐渐减弱的“核心外围”结构,乡村社区表征为整体低值、局部高值的“多极”结构。相对乡村而言,城镇较高、高等级高温脆弱性社区数量更多、分布更广、覆盖范围更大,由此面临的高温脆弱性问题也更严峻; ②城镇与乡村社区的Moran's I指数分别为0.693、0.471,表明城镇与乡村社区的高温脆弱性均具有显著的空间集聚性,且城镇高温脆弱性的空间集聚效应较乡村社区更强。此外,由于集聚效应的存在乡村社区面临的高温脆弱性挑战不可忽视; ③引发城镇与乡村社区高温脆弱性的主导因子存在差异。城镇社区的高温脆弱性主要由高温暴露导致,乡村社区的高温脆弱性主要归结于其适应能力不足。在应对高温脆弱性时,城镇与乡村社区采取的防范策略应当有所侧重。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: Within the context of global warming and urban-rural integration, the adverse effects of elevated temperatures on the health and socio-economic well-being of urban and rural populations are progressively escalating. A scientific assessment of high-temperature vulnerability in both urban and rural areas, along with a comparison of their distinctions, can facilitate the development of tailored guidance for climate adaptation strategies. Methods: Firstly, using Wuhan Metropolis as a case study, this research integrated multi-source data to gauge the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation factors related to high temperatures in urban and rural communities. Secondly, we assessed the differences in the spatial patterns and clustering characteristics of high temperature vulnerability between urban and rural communities. Finally, various types of heat-induced vulnerability factors were identified, and heat prevention strategies were proposed for urban and rural communities, respectively. Results: ① The hightemperature vulnerability of urban and rural communities exhibits a differentiated spatial distribution pattern. Urban areas display a "core-periphery" structure characterized by a gradual decrease in vulnerability from the center outward. In contrast, rural areas exhibit a "multi-pole" structure with generally low vulnerability values and localized high values. In urban areas, communities with higher and sub-higher levels of high-temperature vulnerability are more numerous, widely distributed, and have greater coverage compared to their rural counterparts. Consequently, urban areas face more severe challenges related to high-temperature vulnerability than rural areas. ② The Moran's I indices for urban and rural communities are 0.693 and 0.471, respectively, signifying a noteworthy spatial clustering of high-temperature vulnerability in both urban and rural contexts. Moreover, the spatial clustering effect of high-temperature vulnerability in urban communities surpasses that observed in rural areas. Additionally, the challenge of high-temperature vulnerability faced by rural communities cannot be disregarded, given the presence of the agglomeration effect. ③ There exists heterogeneity in the primary factors contributing to high-temperature vulnerability between urban and rural communities. In urban settings, this vulnerability predominantly stems from heightened temperature exposure, while in rural areas, it is chiefly attributed to a lack of adaptive capacity. Conclusions: These findings imply that distinct preventive strategies should be employed by urban and rural communities to address high-temperature vulnerability effectively.

     

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