地理空间因果原则及地理空间效应的因果发现

Geospatial Causal Principle and Causal Discovery for Geospatial Effects

  • 摘要: 地理大数据的崛起和深度学习技术的发展为解决地理空间分析难题带来了新机遇,然而,现有方法根植于统计相关性,而相关性模式的伪装性和欺骗性以及数据固有的偏差陷阱,导致无法得到可靠的地理空间分析结果。该问题的根源在于违反一个基本原则:数据的相关性并不意味着因果性,而后者是地理学研究的两个主要任务,即揭示未知具体事实和发现一般性规律机理的关键所在。地理科学研究的观察性与地理系统的复杂性和未知性使得无论是因果的哲学定义、随机对照试验以及其他观察性研究使用的准实验方法,都难以直接应用于地理科学因果研究。基于地理空间因果的基本性质假设,提出了地理空间因果原则,旨在为地理空间分析中的因果性研究提供基础理论与方法支撑,同时,梳理了地理空间因果原则和地理分析中空间效应的关系,给出各个效应下的因果发现关键路径。

     

    Abstract: The rise of geographic big data and the advancements in deep learning have brought new opportunities to solve challenges in geospatial analysis. Current methods are rooted in statistical correlations. However, the deceptive and misleading nature of correlation patterns, coupled with inherent biases in the data, make it difficult for those methods to obtain reliable analysis results. And the source of that difficulty is the fact that correlation in data does not imply causation. Serving as the key to unveiling unknown facts and discovering general underlying patterns, causation is critical to geographical research. Given the inherent complexity of earth system and that geographic researches are mainly based on observation into earth, it is impractical to conduct randomized double-blind experiments and inappropriate to directly apply the philosophical definition of causation in geographical researches. In light of that, this paper aims to provide fundamental principles and methodological support for geospatial causal analysis. On the basis of assumptions about geospatial causation, the principle of geospatial causation is proposed. Furthermore, the relationship between this principle and the spatial effects in geospatial analysis is elucidated, major pathways for causal discovery under the consideration of each spatial effect are also presented.

     

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