长江流域陆地水储量变化及归因研究

Variation and Attribution of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yangtze River Basin

  • 摘要: 气候变化和人类活动共同影响了长江流域陆地水储量,对中国经济社会、生态环境和粮食安全产生严重威胁。结合重力恢复与气候实验(gravity recovery and climate experiment, GRACE)卫星产品、地面水文观测、陆地水储量统计学模型和水文模型,分析了2002—2021年长江流域陆地水储量异常(terrestrial water storage anomaly,TWSA)的变化及归因。美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心、喷气动力实验室和戈达德航天中心的GRACE mascon产品相对不确定性分别为5 mm、7.2 mm和3.9 mm;融合的GRACE陆地水储量产品与地面观测及流域水资源公报具有良好可比性,相关系数分别为0.59和0.86(p<0.01),但不同子流域的对比情况存在一定差异;统计学模型和水文模型的TWSA分解结果较为一致,均揭示流域TWSA主要受降水影响;而人类活动因素,如水库蓄水和农业灌溉活动,则造成局部地区陆地水储量的明显变化。基于分离后的融合GRACE信号,发现长江流域历史TWSA已经因气候变率和人类活动而发生了明显变化。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives Climate variability and human activity have profoundly altered the terrestrial water storage in the Yangtze River basin, which has significantly threatened social economy, ecological environment, and food safety of China. However, the variations and attributions of the terrestrial water storage in the basin has not been comprehensively analyzed.
    Methods This paper jointly used the GRACE (gravity recovery and climate experiment) solutions, field observations, statistical model, and large-scale hydrological simulation to perform the attribution of terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) variations in the Yangtze River basin from 2002 to 2021.
    Results The relative uncertainties of GRACE mascon product from CSR (center for space research at University of Texas, Austin), JPL (jet propulsion laboratory), and GSFC (Goddard space flight center) are 5 mm, 7.2 mm, and 3.9 mm, respectively. The merged GRACE product from three institutions based on relative uncertainties present reasonable accuracy by comparing with the in-situ results and water resources bulletins, with the correlation coefficient of 0.59 and 0.86 (p<0.01), respectively. Similar partition results are reflected by the statistical and hydrological modeling results, in which the TWSA is mainly controlled by precipitation, while the human factors such as reservoir impoundment and agricultural irrigation can significantly affect the TWSA at the local scale.
    Conclusions The historical TWSA of the Yangtze River basin has been altered extensively by climate variability and human activity based on the partitioned merged GRACE solution.

     

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