长江流域陆地水储量变化及归因研究

Variation and Attribution of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yangtze River Basin

  • 摘要: 气候变化和人类活动共同影响了长江流域陆地水储量,对我国经济社会、生态环境和粮食安全产生严重威胁。本文结合GRACE卫星产品、地面水文观测、陆地水储量统计学模型和水文模型分析了2002至2021年长江流域陆地水储量异常(terrestrial water storage anomaly,TWSA)的变化及归因。主要发现如下:(1)GSFC、CSR和JPL的GRACE mascon产品相对不确定性分别为3.9、5和7.2 mm;(2)融合的GRACE陆地水储量产品与地面观测及流域水资源公报具有良好可比性,相关系数分别为0.59和0.86(P<0.01),但不同子流域的对比情况存在一定差异;(3)统计学模型和水文模型的TWSA分解结果较为一致,均揭示流域TWSA主要受降水影响;而人类活动因素,如水库蓄水和农业灌溉活动,则造成局部地区陆地水储量的明显变化。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: Climate variability and human activity have profoundly altered the terrestrial water storage in the Yangtze River basin, significantly threatening the social economy, ecological environment, and food safety of China. However, the variations and attributions of the terrestrial water storage in the basin has not been comprehensively analyzed. Methods: This study jointly used the GRACE solutions, field observations, statistical model, and large-scale hydrological simulation to perform the attribution of terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) variations in the Yangtze River basin during 2002-2021. Results: The results show:(1) the relative uncertainties of GRACE mascon product from CSR, JPL, and GSFC reaches 5, 7.2, and 3.9 mm, respectively; (2) the merged GRACE product from three institutions based on relative uncertainties present reasonable accuracy by comparing with the in-situ results and water resources bulletins, with the correlation coefficient of 0.59 and 0.86 (P<0.01), respectively; (3) Similar partition results are reflected by the statistical and hydrological modeling results, in which the TWSA is mainly controlled by precipitation, while the human factors such as reservoir impoundment and agricultural irrigation can significantly affect the TWSA at the local scale. Conclusions: The historical TWSA of the Yangtze River basin has been altered extensively by climate variability and human activity based on the partitioned merged GRACE solution.

     

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