城市群开发边界探究——以上海杭州湾城市群为例

Study on the boundary of urban agglomeration development: A case study of Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration

  • 摘要: 城市群是城市发展到成熟阶段的空间组织形式,城市间的协调发展是城市群可持续发展的必要条件。本研究基于“双评价”视角,结合PLUS (patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型和多目标规划,构建可持续协调发展情景,对上海杭州湾城市群进行多种情景下的2035年土地利用模拟,并进行城镇开发边界的划定研究。结果表明:( 1)相较于自然发展情景,可持续协调发展情景下城镇建设用地扩张更符合城市群协同发展的需要,同时模拟的土地利用格局充分发挥了地区的自然资源优势;( 2)基于可持续协调发展情景划定的城镇开发边界,符合上海杭州湾城市群以上海、杭州、宁波三市为发展中心的发展格局,且特别用途区保证了城市发展和对生态资源和人居环境的保护;( 3)通过双评价视角下建立多目标规划模型,将上海杭州湾城市群未来土地利用经济和生态效益最大化,模拟的土地利用分布格局也更为合理1。本研究采用的城镇开发边界划定方法能够为我国城市和城市群城镇发展边界的划定提供技术方法上的帮助。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: The coordinated development between cities is a necessary condition for the sustainable development of urban agglomeration. The urban development boundary can balance urban development with ecological and agricultural protection. Methods: Based on the perspective of "double evaluation" and combined with PLUS model and multi-objective planning, this study constructed a sustainable and coordinated development scenario, simulated the land use of Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration in 2035 under various scenarios, and studied the demarcation of urban development boundary. Results: (1) Compared with the natural development scenario, the urban construction land expansion under the sustainable and coordinated development scenario is more in line with the needs of the coordinated development of urban agglomeration, and the simulated land use pattern gives full play to the advantages of natural resources in the region. (2) The urban development boundary based on the scenario of sustainable and coordinated development is in line with the development pattern of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Ningbo as the development center of the Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration, and the special purpose area ensures the urban development and the protection of ecological resources and living environment; (3) A multi-objective planning model was established from the perspective of dual evaluation to maximize the positive and ecological benefits of future land use in the ShanghaiHangzhou Bay area, and the simulated land use distribution pattern was more reasonable. Conclusions: The method of urban development boundary demarcation adopted in this study can provide technical help for the demarcation of urban development boundary in China and urban agglomerations.

     

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