城市群开发边界探究——以上海-杭州湾城市群为例

肖锐, 蒋旭晨, 张鹏林

肖锐, 蒋旭晨, 张鹏林. 城市群开发边界探究——以上海-杭州湾城市群为例[J]. 武汉大学学报 ( 信息科学版), 2025, 50(3): 439-448. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20220699
引用本文: 肖锐, 蒋旭晨, 张鹏林. 城市群开发边界探究——以上海-杭州湾城市群为例[J]. 武汉大学学报 ( 信息科学版), 2025, 50(3): 439-448. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20220699
XIAO Rui, JIANG Xuchen, ZHANG Penglin. Study on Urban Agglomeration Development Boundary: A Case Study of Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay Urban Agglomeration[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2025, 50(3): 439-448. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20220699
Citation: XIAO Rui, JIANG Xuchen, ZHANG Penglin. Study on Urban Agglomeration Development Boundary: A Case Study of Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay Urban Agglomeration[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2025, 50(3): 439-448. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20220699

城市群开发边界探究——以上海-杭州湾城市群为例

基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金重大项目 42192580

国家自然科学基金重大项目 42192583

国家自然科学基金 42371299

国家自然科学基金 42361144861

详细信息
    作者简介:

    肖锐,博士,教授,主要从事城市发展和生态环境变化研究。rxiao@whu.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    张鹏林,博士,教授。zpl@whu.edu.cn

Study on Urban Agglomeration Development Boundary: A Case Study of Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay Urban Agglomeration

  • 摘要:

    城市群是城市发展到成熟阶段的空间组织形式,城市间的协调发展是城市群可持续发展的必要条件。基于双评价视角,结合PLUS(patch-generating land use simulation)模型和多目标规划,构建可持续协调发展情景,对上海-杭州湾城市群进行多种情景下的2035年土地利用模拟,并进行城镇开发边界的划定研究。结果表明,相较于自然发展情景,可持续协调发展情景下城镇建设用地扩张更符合城市群协同发展的需要,同时模拟的土地利用格局充分发挥了地区的自然资源优势;基于可持续协调发展情景划定的城镇开发边界,符合上海-杭州湾城市群以上海、杭州、宁波三市为发展中心的发展格局,且特别用途区保证了城市发展和对生态资源及人居环境的保护;通过双评价视角下建立多目标规划模型,将上海-杭州湾城市群未来土地利用经济和生态效益最大化,模拟的土地利用分布格局也更为合理。所提的城镇开发边界划定方法能够为中国城市和城市群城镇发展边界的划定提供技术方法上的帮助。

    Abstract:
    Objectives 

    The coordinated development between cities is a necessary condition for the sustainable development of urban agglomeration. The urban development boundary can balance urban development with ecological and agricultural protection.

    Methods 

    Based on the perspective of double evaluation, this paper combines with patch-generating land use simulation model and multi-objective planning. It constructs a sustainable and coordinated development scenario, simulates the land use of Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration in 2035 under various scenarios, and studies the demarcation of urban development boundary.

    Results 

    Compared with the natural development scenario, the urban construction land expansion under the sustainable and coordinated development scenario is more in line with the needs of the coordinated development of urban agglomeration, and the simulated land use pattern gives full play to the advantages of natural resources in the region. The urban development boundary based on the scenario of sustainable and coordinated development is in line with the development pattern of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Ningbo as the development center of the Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration. Additionally, the special purpose area ensures the urban development and the protection of ecological resources and living environment. A multi-objective planning model is established from the perspective of dual evaluation to maximize the positive and ecological benefits of future land use in the Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration, and the simulated land use distribution pattern is more reasonable.

    Conclusions 

    The proposed method of urban development boundary demarcation can provide technical help for the demarcation of urban development boundary in China and urban agglomerations.

  • http://ch.whu.edu.cn/cn/article/doi/10.13203/j.whugis20220699
  • 图  1   研究区域土地利用图

    Figure  1.   Land Use of the Study Area

    图  2   研究方法技术路线图

    Figure  2.   Flowchart of the Proposed Method

    图  3   基于形态侵蚀和膨胀的划定方法

    Figure  3.   Delineation Method Based on Morphological Erosion and Swelling

    图  4   不同情景下土地利用模拟结果和城镇建设用地扩张强度

    Figure  4.   Land Use Simulation and Urban Construction Land Expansion Intensity Under Different Scenarios

    图  5   2020年与2035年模拟结果的区位熵变化

    Figure  5.   Variation of Location Entropy of Simulation Results in 2020 and 2035

    图  6   上海⁃杭州湾城市群城镇开发边界划定结果

    Figure  6.   Result of Urban Development Boundary in Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay Urban Agglomeration

    表  1   土地利用扩张驱动因子数据

    Table  1   Driver Data of Land Use Expansion

    土地利用类型数据名称数据来源
    地形地貌高程数据ASTER-GDEM-V2
    坡度高程数据计算得到
    生态环境年平均气温http://www.resdc.cn
    年降水量
    植被指数
    经济社会GDPhttp://www.resdc.cn
    人口密度WorldPop数据集
    交通距二级以上公路距离高德地图
    距铁路距离
    距高速出入口距离
    基础设施距公园距离高德地图
    距综合性医院距离
    距学校距离
    区域特点区位熵http://data.cnki.net
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2   多目标规划及其约束条件

    Table  2   Multi-objective Optimization Problem and Its Constraints

    目标函数和约束条件描述
    f1x=6.16x1+0.64x2+12.72x5+1 068.54x7f2x=0.35x1+1.26x2+0.52x3+2.04x5f1x为经济效益,参考中国经济社会大数据平台;f2x来源于文献[31]提出的生态系统服务价值,其中x1表示耕地,x2表示林地,x4表示草地,x5表示水域,x7表示建设用地,单位为元/ha。
    maxf1x,f2x目标函数,使得区域内经济效益和生态系统服务价值最大化
    i=17xi=54 374.04研究区域土地利用总面积为54 374.04 km2
    x117 222.58耕地保护面积,根据上海-杭州湾各地区耕地保护面积目标求和得到
    23 488.31x223 685.16林地面积,根据上海-杭州湾各地区森林覆盖率2035年远景规划目标得到
    8 163.36x79 337.81建设用地面积,通过各地区水资源通报和水资源约束法确定未来地区总建筑面积
    x30.552.178x42.4453 511.45x53 919.331.418x61.494马尔可夫链预测的2030-2035年其他土地利用面积,作为预期年该类型土地利用面积的约束条件,其中x3表示灌木,x6表示未利用地。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3   不同情景下土地利用预测面积/km2

    Table  3   Predicted Area of Land Use Under Different Scenarios/km2

    年份情景耕地林地灌木草地水域未利用地城镇建设用地
    201018 609.3824 641.900.817.104 828.8770.926 274.03
    202018 277.7523 683.540.562.484 244.351.458 162.91
    2035自然发展17 970.3922 940.660.422.183 511.451.459 504.30
    可持续协调发展17 625.4023 448.310.562.183 919.331.429 337.81
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2024-05-09
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-07-11
  • 刊出日期:  2025-03-04

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