Emergency Analysis of the Impact of the Luding Ms 6.8 Earthquake on Hailuogou Glacier
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摘要: 2022-09-05四川省甘孜州泸定县发生Ms 6.8地震，震中距离海螺沟冰川约10 km，海螺沟冰川受此次地震影响如何，受到社会广泛关切。利用多时相Landsat 8和Sentinel-2光学卫星影像，基于归一化雪覆盖指数对海螺沟冰川面积进行监测，并利用Sentinel-1雷达卫星影像，基于像素偏移追踪技术对海螺沟地震前和震中位移进行监测。结果表明，2016―2022年海螺沟冰川8月份面积呈波动变化趋势，与日平均最高气温具有负相关性，冰川运动速度与地形坡度和日平均最高气温具有正相关性。泸定地震未造成海螺沟冰川运动速度大范围显著增大，但对冰瀑布前缘区域扰动明显。震后冰崩直接致灾可能性较小，但增加了泥石流致灾风险。Abstract:Objectives On 5th September 2022, an Ms 6.8 earthquake struck Luding County, Ganzi Prefecture, Sichuan Province, China, with the epicenter about 10 km away from Hailuogou Glacier. The affect of this earthquake on Hailuogou Glacier has been widely concerned by the society.Methods Firstly, the glacier area is monitored based on normalized difference snow index using multi-temporal Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 optical satellite images. Secondly, Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar satellite image is used to monitor the displacement before and during the Luding earthquake based on pixel offset tracking technology.Results The results indicate that the area of Hailuogou Glacier shows a shaking trend from 2016 to 2022, which have a negative correlation with the daily average maximum temperature. While the velocity has a positively correlation with the slope gradient and the daily average maximum temperature. The Luding earthquake did not cause a significant increase in the velocity of Hailuogou Glaciers in a large range, but it significantly disturbed the front area of the ice waterfall.Conclusions The possibility of direct disaster caused by ice avalanches after the earthquake was low, but which increased the risk of disaster caused by debris flow.
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致谢: 感谢四川测绘地理信息局、四川省国防科技情报研究所和深圳飞马机器人科技有限公司提供震后遥感数据，同时感谢欧洲空间局提供的Sentinel-1雷达卫星数据和美国Planet卫星公司提供的Planet光学卫星数据。本文撰写过程中参考了中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所刘巧研究员震后发表的关于地震对海螺沟冰川影响的相关科普论文，在此表示感谢。
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图 2 海螺沟一号营地附近同震滑坡分布
Figure 2. Distribution of Coseismic Landslides near No.1 Camp in the Hailuogou Valley
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图 4 多时相Planet卫星影像上显示的冰瀑布变化
Figure 4. Changes of the Ice Waterfall in the Multi-temporal Planet Satellite Images
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图 5 2016—2022年海螺沟冰川8月面积变化及与平均最高气温的关系图
Figure 5. Area Change of the Hailuogou Glacier and the Relationship with Temperature from 2016 to 2022
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图 6 2022-08-26—2022-09-07 Sentinel-1雷达卫星POT形变结果图
Figure 6. POT Deformation Result of Sentinel-1 SAR Images Between August 26 and September 7, 2022
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图 7 强形变区不同期次Sentinel-1雷达卫星POT位移量
Figure 7. POT Deformation of the Significant Deformation Zones in Sentinel-1 SAR Images of Different Periods
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图 8 海螺沟冰川强形变区面积变化
Figure 8. Area Change of the Significant Deformation Zones of the Hailuogou Glacier
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图 9 海螺沟冰川强形变区位移量和平均运动速度剖面
Figure 9. Displacement and Average Velocity Sections of the Significant Deformation Zones of the Hailuogou Glacier
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图 10 泸定地震前后冰瀑布Planet卫星影像
Figure 10. Planet Satellite Images of the Ice Waterfall Before and After the Luding Earthquake
表 1 本研究中使用的卫星影像数据
Table 1 Satellite Images Used in This Study
年份 卫星 分辨率/m 采集日期 2016 Landsat 8 30 2016-08-25 2017 Landsat 8 30 2017-09-13 2018 Sentinel-2 10 2018-08-28 2019 Landsat 8 30 2019-08-25 2020 Sentinel-2 10 2020-08-27 2021 Sentinel-2 10 2021-08-02 2022 Sentinel-2 10 2022-08-12 
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