基于QAR飞行大数据的空中颠簸风险时空分布模式探索与分析

Spatiotemporal Pattern of Air Turbulence Risks with QAR Flight Big Data

  • 摘要: 空中颠簸是民航飞行过程中的重大安全风险之一,其空间分布模式的探索与分析对有效规避颠簸区域、提升飞行安全水平有重要意义。利用中国民航行业快速存取记录器(quick access recorder, QAR)大数据提取了2017—2019年中国范围内发生的空中颠簸事件,通过核密度估计和时空可视化对其时空分布特征进行了初步的探索性分析,采用空间自相关分析、热点分析、地理加权主成分分析等时空统计分析技术从不同层次和视角对民航空中颠簸风险进行空间分布模式与规律探索。结果表明,中国民航飞机2017—2019年空中颠簸事件较多出现于西藏地区、中部地区和东南部地区,其中第一阶梯和第二阶梯地区空中颠簸事件发生密度明显高于第三阶梯,且多位于第一阶梯和第二阶梯分界线附近。空中颠簸程度具有较为显著的空间自相关性,表现为高-高值聚集特征。在精细尺度视角下,地理加权主成分分析结果表明,空中颠簸风险与相关属性参数间关系存在典型的空间异质性特征。该研究为切实提升民航行业风险管理与安全水平,从时空视角提供了理论算法与实践应用支撑。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives Air turbulence is one of the major safety risks during civil aviation flight. Explore the spatial distribution pattern of great significance for avoiding risky areas and enhancing flight safety.
    Methods We use quick access recorder (QAR) big data of China's civil aviation industry from 2017 to 2019 to detect the nationwide air turbulence events, and conduct exploratory analysis in the spatiotemporal distributions and patterns via kernel density estimation and spatiotemporal visualization techniques. In addition, we use spatial statistical techniques, including spatial autocorrelation, hot spot analysis, and geographically weighted principal component analysis (GWPCA), to explore the spatial patterns of air turbulence events.
    Results The results show that these events occur frequently in Tibet, central and southeastern regions of China. In particular, the event densities are highly correlated with local terrains, e.g. step I and step II regions, where the air turbulence events occur frequently. In the fine-grained scale, we adapt GWPCA to qualitatively analyze the spatial heterogeneities in the relationships between air turbulence and relative parameters. The surface elevation differences show significant impacts in the southeast coastal area, while the inertial vertical velocity tends to be the principle factor in Guangxi and Yunnan provinces.
    Conclusions This study provides theoretical and practical supports in improving the risk management and safety insurance of the civil aviation industry.

     

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