突发公共卫生事件下的人口流动模式变化识别

Identifying Human Mobility Patterns Changes During Public Health Emergencies

  • 摘要: 根据中国与美国两大湾区的高时空分辨率人口移动大数据,首先构建移动变化指数、距离变化指数和波动变化指数3个评价指标,剖析突发公共卫生事件下中国粤港澳大湾区与美国旧金山湾区的人口移动差异特征。然后,利用奇异值分解算法识别出两大湾区的人口流动内在结构和流动模式。分析发现:(1)在人口流动管控维度上,粤港澳大湾区整体表现优于旧金山湾区,大流行期间人口移动量下降幅度更大,每日移动量波动更加平稳,平均出行距离更短。(2)粤港澳大湾区人口流动模式主要受春节假期与公共卫生政策双重影响,从中识别出日常出行模式、返乡出行模式和返程复工模式。旧金山湾区人口流动模式呈现强规律性(包括日常出行模式、工作日出行模式与周末出行模式),公共卫生政策对其影响并不深刻。量化突发公共卫生事件管控措施下中美两大湾区人口流动指标与模式的定量改变,对评估防疫措施有效性和确定有针对性的防疫干预措施至关重要,还可为未来各类突发性公共卫生事件的防控措施制定提供重要指标与经验参考。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives This study aims to evaluate the changes in human mobility during a public health emergency.
    Methods Employing detailed spatiotemporal big data on human mobility from China and the USA, we constructed three mobility indices: Mobility change index, distance change index, and volatility change index. We investigated the mobility characteristics within China's Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) and the United States' San Francisco Bay Area (SBA) during the epidemic. The singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm was applied to identified underlying structures and patterns of mobility in these regions.
    Results The results show that: (1) The GBA outperformed the SBA in terms of human mobility control with a greater decline in movement volumes, smoother volatility in daily movement and shorter average travel distances during the pandemic. (2) Human mobility patterns in the GBA were influenced by both the Chinese Spring Festival holiday and public health policies, from which the daily travel patterns, returning home travel characteristics and returning-to-work characteristics were identified. Human mobility patterns in the SBA show strong regularity (including daily travel characteristics, weekday travel characteristics and weekend travel characteristics), and public health policies do not have profound impacts.
    Conclusions We quantify the changes in human mobility patterns under different epidemic control measures in two Bay Areas of China and the United States, which is essential to assess and identify intervention effectiveness. It also provides important evidences and references for various infectious disease control in the future.

     

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