利用时空神经网络模型的长江经济带气温反演

Air Temperature Estimation in the Yangtze River Economic Zone Using Geographically and Temporally Neural Networks

  • 摘要: 传统基于遥感的气温反演方法往往使用全局模型,从而忽略了气温分布及其时空影响异质性,特别是在较大区域尺度的研究中存在不足。针对长江经济带区域,引入时空地理加权神经网络模型,建立一种高精度的气温估计方法。通过在广义回归网络模型中建立局部模型来顾及时空异质性的影响,融合遥感数据、同化数据、站点数据,获取面域分布的近地表气温信息。采用基于站点的十折交叉验证方法对模型性能进行评估,结果表明,时空地理加权神经网络有效提高了气温估计的精度(均方根误差为1.899 ℃, 平均绝对误差(mean absolute error, MAE)为1.310 ℃, 相关系数为0.976),与多元线性回归和传统的全局神经网络方法相比,MAE值分别降低了1.112 ℃和0.378 ℃。气温空间分布制图结果显示,该方法结果能很好地反映长江经济带气温空间上的差异和不同季节的特征信息,具有实际应用价值。

     

    Abstract:
      Objectives  Traditional remote sensing-based air temperature estimation method usually used the global models, which ignored the effects of spatiotemporal heterogeneity, especially for the researches in large regional areas.
      Methods  Taking the Yangtze River Economic Zone as a typical research area, this paper introduces the geographically and temporally neural networks for high-precision temperature estimation. The influence of spatiotemporal heterogeneity was considered by establishing the local models in the generalized regression neural network. Remote sensing data, assimilation data and station data were fused to obtain the spatially continuous near-surface temperature. The model performance was evaluated by the site-based ten-fold cross-validation method.
      Results  The results show that the geographically and temporally weighted neural network had effectively improved the estimation accuracy with the root mean square error(RMSE)=1.899 ℃, mean absolute error (MAE)=1.310 ℃ and correlation coefficient (R)=0.976. Compared with the multiple linear regression method and the traditional global neural network, the MAE value decreased by 1.112 ℃ and 0.378 ℃, respectively.
      Conclusions  The temperature mapping results indicated that the model used in this paper can well reflect the spatial distribution differences, which means that this study is possible to provide a new way for temperature estimation with high precision.

     

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