精细尺度下的不稳定进近影响因素分析

Analysis of Influence Factors for Unstable Approach in Fine⁃Grained Scale

  • 摘要: 不稳定进近是在飞机下降阶段威胁飞行安全的重要风险之一,受气象、地形要素等空间异质性较强的因素的影响。利用中国民航业快速存取记录器(quick access recorder,QAR)大数据提取空中客车系列飞机和波音系列飞机在2018年1月发生的不稳定进近事件,利用不同探索性数据分析方法对机场发生不稳定进近事件触发频率的时空分布特征进行初步分析并探索其潜在诱因要素。此外,利用皮尔逊相关系数从全局尺度进行相关性探索,利用地理加权汇总统计,从精细尺度探索不稳定进近事件的发生与潜在诱因要素之间的相关关系。实验结果表明,不同机型发生不稳定进近事件的时空分布特征以及时间发生频率与不同诱因要素的相关性强度上有较大差异,同一机型的飞机在不同尺度范围内与诱因要素之间相关性的强度存在较大差异,并在精细尺度内的相关性描述要明显优于全局尺度。对不稳定进近事件进行初步探索性空间数据分析,从空间异质性角度出发,为未来该事件精细化定量成因分析提供了重要的研究基础和方向指引,对有效地规避此类风险也有典型的实践意义。

     

    Abstract:
      Objectives  Unstable approach is one of the most important risks that threatens the flight safety during the descending phase, and is affected by factors such as meteorological and topographical that have strong spatial heterogeneity.
      Methods  In this article, we use the big data of quick access recorder (QAR) that collected by China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology (CAST) to detect the unstable approach happening in Airbus and Boeing aircrafts in January 2018, and utilize exploratory spatial data analysis methods to explore the spatial patterns and relative influencing factors. In addition, Pearson correlation coefficient and geographically weighted correlation coefficient are used to investigate the pair-wise relationships between unstable approach and factors.
      Results  Experimental results show that unstable approaches of different aircraft types are distinctive in spatial distributions, and unstable approach of same aircraft type spatially varies in different regions in China. Besides, the correlation description in the fine-grained scale is better than in the global scale.
      Conclusions  This study provides an important research basis and guidance for the future quantitative cause analysis, which is significant for avoiding such risks.

     

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