基于相空间重构和高斯过程回归的对流层延迟预测

Tropospheric Delay Prediction Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Gaussian Process Regression

  • 摘要: 天顶对流层延迟(zenith tropospheric delay,ZTD)是影响GPS定位精度的关键因素,为了提高ZTD的预测精度,提出一种基于相空间重构的高斯过程回归预测模型。针对ZTD时间序列的混沌特性,利用国际GNSS服务(International GNSS Service,IGS)站提供的ZTD数据,采用Cao方法确定嵌入维数,对ZTD数据进行相空间重构,探究高斯过程(Gaussian process,GP)模型对12个位于南、北半球不同纬度等级IGS站的ZTD预测精度和准确性。为了验证GP模型的有效性,将预测结果分别与原始数据和反向传播(back propagation,BP)神经网络模型预测结果作对比分析,进一步探究不同时间对ZTD预测精度的影响,并分析了经度和海拔对ZTD预测精度的影响。结果表明,GP模型预测结果的均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)达到mm级,GP模型与理论值的相关性达到0.997,预测精度指标明显优于BP神经网络模型;GP模型在南半球的预测精度高于北半球,且在高纬地区的RMSE小于3.6 mm,更适用于高纬地区的对流层延迟预测;在研究时域内,GP模型在大部分站点对晚上的预测精度高于白天,经度对ZTD预测精度的影响不明显,海拔与ZTD预测精度呈正比。

     

    Abstract: Zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) is a key factor affecting global positioning system (GPS) positioning accuracy. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of ZTD, a Gaussian process(GP) regression prediction model based on phase space reconstruction is proposed.In view of the chaotic characteristics of ZTD time series, using the ZTD data provided by the International Global Navigation Satellite System Service (IGS) stations.Firstly, the embedded dimension is determined using Cao method, phase space reconstruction of ZTD data is carried out, and the precision and accuracy of ZTD using GP model for 12 IGS ststions at different latitude levels in the southern and northern hemisphere are explored.Then, in order to verify the effectiveness of GP model, the prediction results are compared with the original data and prediction results of the back propagation (BP) neural network model, and the influence of different time on the prediction accuracy of ZTD is further explored. Finally, the influence of longitude and altitude on the prediction accuracy of ZTD is analyzed.The results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) of GP model prediction results reaches mm level, the correlation between GP model and theoretical value reaches 0.997, and the prediction accuracy index is obviously better than that of BP neural network model. The prediction accuracy of GP model in the southern hemisphere is higher than that in the northern hemisphere, and RMSE in the high latitude area is less than 3.6 mm, which is more suitable for the tropospheric delay prediction in the high latitude area. In the time domain of the study, the prediction accuracy of GP model at night is higher than that in the day at most sites, the longitude has no obvious influence on the prediction accuracy of ZTD, and the altitude is proportional to the prediction accuracy of ZTD. Therefore, GP model has better practicability and feasibility for the prediction of tropospheric delay.

     

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