ENSO影响下的西太平洋地区海陆水储量变化分析

Analysis of Sea and Land Water Storage Changes in the Western Pacific Under the Influence of ENSO

  • 摘要: 利用2005-01-2016-12的GRACE卫星数据,结合测高、ARGO(array for real-time geostrophic oceanography)、TRMM(tropical rainfall measurement mission)降水数据和MEI(multivariate ENSO index),从海平面、海水质量、海水比容和陆地水储量的非季节性变化分析了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño/Southern Oscillation,ENSO)对西太平洋及其沿岸地区的影响。在GRACE数据处理过程中考虑了地震构造信号的影响,并采用正演模型法来恢复时变信号。结果表明,西太平洋地区平均海平面(western Pacific mean sea level,WPMSL)变化对ENSO的响应表现为:厄尔尼诺期间海平面下降,拉尼娜期间海平面上升;尤其在2014-2016年厄尔尼诺期间,WPMSL下降了近26.2 mm。比容变化为影响WPMSL非季节性变化的主导因素。澳大利亚和中南半岛水储量异常在年际变化上也较好响应了ENSO,与MEI的相关系数分别为-0.61(滞后3个月)和-0.65(滞后8个月)。长江流域对ENSO的响应主要在中下游区域,2014-2016年厄尔尼诺造成了该时期长江流域水储量达到近几年的极大值。

     

    Abstract: In this paper, the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), altimetry, ARGO, TRMM (tropical rainfall measurement mission) data and multivariate ENSO index (MEI) from January 2005 to December 2016 are adopted to analyze the effects of ENSO on the Western Pacific and its coastal areas, from the aspects of sea level, oceanic mass, steric and the terrestrial water storage change. During the GRACE data processing, we remove the effect of tectonic signals, and use an iterative forward modeling method to recover time-varying signal. The result shows, the changes in the Western Pacific mean sea level (WPMSL) in response to ENSO are as follows:The sea level is lower during El Niño and higher during La Niña; in particular, during 2014-2016 El Nino, the WPMSL dropped by nearly 26.2 mm. The steric change is the dominant factor affecting the nonseasonal anomalies of the WPMSL. The nonseasonal anomalies of water storage in Australia and Indochina Peninsula also respond well to the ENSO, and the correlation coefficients with the MEI are -0.61 (lag three months) and -0.65 (lag eight months). The response of the Yangtze River basin to ENSO is mainly in the middle and lower basin, 2014-2016 El Niño caused the water storage in the Yangtze River basin to reach the maximum value in recent years.

     

/

返回文章
返回