强对流系统遥感监测及气溶胶污染对流调控机制研究进展与展望

Remote Sensing of Severe Convective Systems and Mechanisms of Aerosol-Induced Convective Modulation: Advances and Perspectives

  • 摘要: 强对流系统是短时暴雨、雷暴和冰雹等极端天气现象的载体, 具有发展快、强度大、致灾强等特点, 不仅是全球水循环与能量交换的重要途径,更是区域自然灾害的驱动器。大气气溶胶作为云的“种子”,显著影响云和降水的发生与发展,是影响强对流系统的关键因素。在全球变暖加速与人类工业变革背景下, 围绕强对流系统多源动态监测及气溶胶对其影响机制两个核心问题,综述地基与卫星观测在强对流系统识别与追踪中的作用,梳理大气气溶胶污染对强对流的调控机制,包括暖相激发、混合相激发、超细粒子活化和气象反馈等,并讨论不同气象条件、气溶胶类型和海陆环境下研究结论差异性及其原因。最后,本文从微物理反演、垂直结构探测、物理模拟和人工智能应用等方面提出未来研究方向。

     

    Abstract: Severe convective systems produce extreme weather events such as shortduration heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and hail. Characterized by rapid development, high intensity, and substantial destructive potential, these systems play a vital role in the global water cycle and energy exchange and are major drivers of regional natural disasters. Atmospheric aerosols serve as cloud condensation and ice-nucleating particles, substantially influencing cloud and precipitation formation and development, and are therefore key factors in modulating severe convective systems. Against the backdrop of accelerating global warming and industrial transformation, this review addresses two central topics: multisource monitoring of the evolution of severe convective systems and the mechanisms underlying aerosol influences on these systems. We review the roles of ground-based and satellite observations in identifying and tracking severe convective systems and synthesize the mechanisms through which aerosol pollution modulates severe convection, including warm-phase invigoration, mixed-phase invigoration, ultrafine particle activation, and meteorological feedbacks. We further examine discrepancies in findings across meteorological conditions, aerosol types, and land–ocean environments, together with their underlying causes. Finally, we outline future research directions in cloud microphysical retrievals, vertical structure observations, physics-based modeling, and artificial intelligence applications.

     

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