灾害应急预案在线情景推演与定制生成方法

Online Scenario Simulation and Customized Generation Method for Disaster Emergency Plans

  • 摘要: 面对自然灾害日益凸显的突发性、链生性与复合性特征,传统静态应急预案在复杂动态场景下面临适应性不足的挑战。为实现“情景-应对”应急范式从理论到实践的跨越,提出一种融合知识图谱与情景推演的应急预案动态生成方法。该方法首先实现了融合灾害事件、情景、情景元、要素状态四级层次的灾害情景推演网络建模,并构建自然灾害应急知识图谱,实现了灾害事件、应急管理、多模态数据、灾害专业模型等多源异构知识的结构化表达与语义关联。在此基础上,设计了灾害情景推演到预案定制生成的生成机制:通过专业灾害演化模型进行动态情景推演,并将推演结果与应急预案响应等级标准进行动态绑定,以此驱动结构化预案模板库的匹配与预案定制生成。最终,研发了一套集情景模拟、态势推演、预案生成与作战标绘于一体的数字化应急预案系统。以“3.30”西昌森林火灾为例的验证表明,该方法能够有效打通灾害态势推演与应急预案之间的信息壁垒,生成图文并茂、精准适配实时灾情的定制化预案,为提升防灾减灾救灾工作的科学性、协同性与智能化水平提供了新的技术路径。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: Rapidly evolving and multi-hazard natural disasters pose increasing challenges to traditional emergency planning systems, which are typically static and weakly coupled with real-time situational awareness. Existing approaches lack a unified mechanism to transform dynamic disaster states into structured and executable emergency plans. This study aims to develop an online scenario simulation and emergency plan generation framework that integrates disaster evolution modeling, knowledge graph reasoning, and multi-source data fusion. Methods: The proposed framework consists of four components. (1) A hierarchical disaster scenario simulation model is constructed, including disaster event, scenario, scenario element, and elemental state, which discretizes continuous disaster evolution into computable state transitions. (2) A natural disaster emergency knowledge graph integrates heterogeneous data such as emergency plans, historical cases, spatial data, and model outputs to enable semantic reasoning and knowledge fusion. (3) A scenario-driven emergency plan generation mechanism maps simulation outputs to standardized emergency response levels and dynamically fills structured plan templates. (4) An online system architecture is implemented using a microservice design, Spring Boot backend, Vue.js and CesiumJS frontend, supported by PostgreSQL, Neo4j databases, enabling continuous scenario updates and intermediate-state initialization. Results: A case study of the “3.30” Xichang forest fire was conducted. The system successfully reconstructed multi-stage disaster evolution, including ignition, initial disposal, full suppression, and final containment. Scenario outputs were dynamically aligned with emergency response levels to trigger corresponding plan templates. The generated plans include structured components such as command organization, risk zoning, evacuation strategies, key target protection, and rescue task allocation, with embedded spatial visualization. The end-to-end processing time from data input to plan generation is approximately 80 seconds, demonstrating near real-time decision support capability. Conclusions: This study proposes an integrated online framework for disaster scenario simulation and emergency plan generation. By coupling scenario simulation, knowledge graph reasoning, and template-based plan synthesis, it enables structured transformation from dynamic disaster states to actionable emergency responses. Although the current system is primarily designed for decision support and does not yet fully implement autonomous learning, it provides a scalable foundation for intelligent emergency management. Future work will focus on real-time sensor integration, adaptive learning mechanisms, and cross-disaster generalization.

     

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