海事时空数据挖掘与预测研究进展

Spatiotemporal Data Mining and Prediction for Maritime Transportation: Data,Methods,Applications,and Opportunities

  • 摘要: 时空数据、物联网、高性能计算与人工智能的发展,持续推动航运业新业态演进。海事时空数据包括船舶轨迹、海图、气象数据及航运业务相关数据等,构成了反映水上交通运行态势的重要时空信息基础。海事时空数据挖掘与预测研究对于提升航运系统运行效率、运输能力与服务质量具有重要意义。系统梳理了近十年来国内外基于海事时空数据的相关研究,归纳了经典统计分析、时空统计分析、时空预测以及图论与复杂网络等主要方法,总结了其在船舶行为建模、水上交通风险评估、船舶路径优化、港口调度管理、港口与航运企业运营评估、船舶运输网络分析、船舶排放监测与预测、船舶目标识别以及航运知识图谱构建与应用等方面的研究进展,并进一步分析了该领域面临的主要挑战与未来发展方向。

     

    Abstract: The rapid development of spatiotemporal data, the Internet of Things, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence has continuously accelerated the digital and intelligent transformation of maritime transportation. Maritime spatiotemporal data, including vessel trajectories, nautical charts, meteorological and hydrological observations, and shipping business-related data, have become an important information foundation for describing the operational status of waterborne traffic and supporting intelligent maritime governance. Through effective mining and prediction of such data, it becomes possible to improve operational efficiency, transport capacity, service quality, safety management, and environmental sustainability in maritime trans⁃ portation systems.Research published over the past decade has shown that maritime spatiotemporal data mining and prediction has gradually formed a relatively comprehensive methodological framework. Classical statistical analysis remains important for regression, clustering, classification, and time-series modeling, especially in tasks such as fuel-consumption estimation, trajectory pattern discovery, vessel classification, and trend analysis. Spatiotemporal statistical analysis further strengthens the characterization of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity by introducing spatial autocorrelation analysis, spatial pattern analysis, and spatial regression models, thereby providing effective tools for traffic-flow monitoring, hotspot identification, and regional risk assessment. With the rapid development of data-driven methods, machine learning and deep learning have been widely applied to trajectory prediction, traffic-state prediction, behavior recognition, and emission forecasting. In parallel, graph theory and complex network methods have provided effective support for representing in⁃ teractions among vessels, ports, and routes, and for analyzing network evolution, vulnerability, and resilience. Existing studies have also demonstrated broad application potential in vessel behavior modeling, waterborne traffic risk assessment, vessel path optimization, port scheduling and management, port and shipping enterprise operation evaluation, shipping network analysis, ship emission monitoring and prediction, vessel target recognition, and maritime knowledge graph construction and application. Overall, maritime spatiotemporal data are driving a transition from experience-based judgment toward data-driven analysis and intelligent decision support.Despite these advances, several challenges remain unresolved, including data heterogeneity, missing and noisy observations, cross-source fusion difficulty, uncertainty propagation, insufficient model interpretability, weak cross-scenario generalization, and the lack of unified evaluation benchmarks. Future research should place greater emphasis on high-quality multimodal data construction, real-time spatiotemporal computing, knowledgeenhanced modeling, graph intelligence, large-model-assisted maritime decision support, and integrated frameworks that combine perception, analysis, prediction, and dynamic control, so as to provide stronger support for intelligent shipping, smart ports, and modern waterborne traffic governance.

     

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