乘积核高斯过程的GNSS时间序列非平稳振幅建模

Modeling Non-Stationary Amplitudes in GNSS Time Series Based on a Product-Kernel Gaussian Process

  • 摘要: GNSS坐标时间序列中的季节信号受环境荷载年际变率驱动,其振幅随时间缓慢调制演化,呈显著非平稳特征。为克服现有方法在模型结构层面对时变振幅表征能力不足的问题,本文提出一种基于乘积核的高斯过程(Gaussian Process,GP)时变振幅建模方法(GP-MP),该方法利用指数正弦平方周期核(Periodic Kernel)约束季节相位,并通过Matérn核实现振幅的平滑调制,从而完成时变特性的显式建模。基于模拟实验与青藏高原东北缘46个连续GNSS测站的实测验证,GP-MP在模拟条件下整体拟合精度较LS-HEM与SSA分别提升约37%与18%,缺失段重建精度分别提升约26%与22%,在实测条件下平均拟合精度亦分别提升约32%与27%,残差接近随机白噪声,表明乘积核结构有效提取了序列中的时变振幅信息。进一步将GP-MP应用于速度场估计,垂直速率较LS-HEM平均降低30%~40%,有效抑制了季节性非构造信号对长期趋势估计的干扰,为区域地壳形变监测提供了更为可靠的方法支撑。

     

    Abstract: Objectives Seasonal signals in GNSS coordinate time series exhibit pronounced non-stationary characteristics, as their amplitudes undergo slow and continuous modulation driven by the interannual variability of environmental loading. Conventional methods such as LS-HEM assume fixed seasonal amplitudes throughout the observation period, resulting in systematic residuals when interannual modulation is significant, while SSA reflects amplitude evolution only indirectly through reconstructed components without explicit parametric representation. This study proposes a Gaussian process time-varying amplitude modeling method based on a product kernel, termed GP-MP, to overcome these structural limitations.Methods GP-MP constructs the covariance function as the pointwise product of a Matern 3/2 kernel and an exponential sine-squared periodic kernel. The periodic kernel constrains the seasonal phase structure, while the Matern kernel governs smooth amplitude modulation, enabling the effective seasonal amplitude to evolve continuously over time without any parametric assumption on its trajectory. All model hyperparameters are jointly optimized by maximizing the log marginal likelihood. The method was validated through controlled simulation experiments using 10-year synthetic daily series with known timevarying amplitude profiles, and through real-data analysis of vertical displacement time series from 46 continuous GNSS stations on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, processed with GAMIT/GLOBK in the ITRF2014 reference frame.Results In simulation experiments, GP-MP reduced fitting RMSE by 37% relative to LS-HEM and by 18% relative to SSA, and improved missing-data reconstruction accuracy by 26% and 22% respectively, with residuals closely approximating white noise. Under real-data conditions across 46 stations, mean fitting RMSE improved by 32% and 27% over LS-HEM and SSA. At representative stations exhibiting complex signals such as abrupt displacement drops and short-duration amplitude perturbations, GP-MP consistently outperformed both competing methods. For regional velocity field estimation, the mean vertical velocity derived from GP-MP was 30 to 40 percent lower than that from LS-HEM, indicating that unresolved non-stationary seasonal signals are aliased into the long-term trend estimate under constant-amplitude modeling.Conclusions GP-MP provides a principled solution to non-stationary seasonal amplitude modeling in GNSS coordinate time series. The product-kernel structure explicitly encodes amplitude modulation at the covariance function level, achieving consistent accuracy improvements over LS-HEM and SSA in both signal fitting and missing-data reconstruction. Applied to velocity field estimation, GP-MP suppresses the aliasing of seasonal non-tectonic signals into long-term trend estimates, yielding more reliable velocity fields for regional crustal deformation monitoring.

     

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