融合GNSS/GRACE/根区土壤湿度数据的综合干旱指数及其应用

Integrated Drought Index Combining GNSS/GRACE/ RootZone Soil Moisture Data and Its Application

  • 摘要: 为克服传统单一干旱指数在表征气象-水文-农业复合干旱过程中的局限性,融合了全球导航卫星系统( Global Navigation Satellite System,GNSS)反演的大气可降水量(Precipitable Water Vapor,PWV)、扣除根区土壤湿度且经XGBoost降尺度至0.1°的GRACE( Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment)陆地水储量异常( Terrestrial Water StorageAnomalies,TWSA)及根区土壤湿度等多源数据,提出了一种基于Copula函数的新型综合干旱指数(Fusion Drought Index,FDI),并采用日本九州岛2014-2024年月尺度数据进行验证。结果表明: FDI与经典帕尔默干旱严重程度指数(Palmer Drought Severity Index,PDSI)空间相关性绝大部分区域达0.59-0.69,且与基于GNSS的标准化降水转化指数(Global NavigationSatellite System-Standardized Precipitation Conversion Index,GNSS-SPCI)、基于GRACE的水文干旱指数( GRACE-Drought Severity Index,GRACE-DSI)、标准化土壤湿度指数(Standardized Soil Moisture Index,SSMI)三种单一指数均显著相关(0.536~0.617) ,GNSSSPCI、GRACE-DSI、SSMI三者对FDI的贡献度分别为27.19%、26.07%、46.74%,证明了其可靠性与综合性。相较于单一干旱指数,FDI在时间序列上表现出更强的稳定性,同时保持了对干旱变化过程的敏感响应,可有效识别2015年末和2017年初的复合干旱事件。在空间上,FDI兼顾了单一指数的局地极端信号,能更充分地表征区域复合干旱的空间分布特征。最后,量化分析了FDI长期趋势及干旱事件特征,2014-2024年间九州地区未出现统计意义上的大范围显著干旱化趋势,但FDI清晰揭示了九州地区的南北干旱格局分异:南部表现为高频次、低强度、短历时的特征;北部则呈现低频次、高强度、长历时的特征。研究表明,构建的FDI为海岛季风区等复杂气候条件下的复合干旱监测提供了有效工具。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: Conventional single drought indices fail to capture compound drought characteristics spanning meteorology, hydrology and agriculture, while classic integrated indices such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) rely on sparse in-situ observations with limited spatial resolution. Existing satellite-based monitoring rarely jointly integrates GNSS-derived precipitable water vapor (PWV), GRACE terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA, with root-zone soil moisture deducted to avoid redundancy) and root-zone soil moisture (RZSM), leaving a gap in targeted tools for complex island monsoon regions like Kyushu Island, Japan. Methods: A novel Fusion Drought Index (FDI) is developed via the Clayton Copula function, which optimally fits the joint distribution of three standardized single indices: the GNSS-based Standardized Precipitation Conversion Index (GNSS-SPCI), the GRACE-based Drought Severity Index (GRACE-DSI, derived from XGBoost-downscaled 0.1° TWSA), and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI). High-resolution PDSI from the TerraClimate dataset serves as the validation benchmark, and the Mann-Kendall trend test plus run theory are applied to quantify drought spatiotemporal characteristics across Kyushu from January 2014 to September 2024. Results: FDI shows a strong positive correlation (0.59–0.69) with PDSI, and significant correlations (0.536–0.617) with all three single indices. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis reveals their respective contributions to FDI are 27.19%, 26.07% and 46.74%. Variance inflation factors of all input indices are below 2.35, confirming no severe multicollinearity. The downscaled GRACE-DSI achieves high stability verified by ten-fold cross-validation. Temporally, FDI successfully identifies two compound drought events in late 2015 and early 2017 that were missed by single indices due to signal mismatches across spheres. Spatially, FDI integrates localized extreme signals from single indices and clearly depicts a north-south drought pattern: the south features high-frequency (16–18 events), short-duration (<2 months) droughts driven by frequent typhoon impacts, while the north presents low-frequency (9–13 events), longduration (up to 3 months) droughts regulated by large-scale climatic signals. No statistically significant widespread drought intensification trend is detected across Kyushu during the study period. Conclusions: The proposed FDI effectively overcomes the limitations of single indices in characterizing multidimensional compound droughts, providing a reliable tool for drought monitoring and risk assessment in island monsoon regions and other complex climatic zones. Future work will incorporate GNSS vertical deformation data to impose physical constraints on GRACE TWSA, further improving monitoring accuracy.

     

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