基于星链精密星历能量法分析轨道机动策略

Energy-Based Analysis of Starlink Orbital Maneuver Strategies Using Precise Ephemerides

  • 摘要: 星链卫星的大规模部署挤占了大量近地轨道资源,加剧了空间交通拥塞与在轨碰撞风险,深入剖析其轨道机动策略,可为太空交通管理提供关键数据支撑。提出基于星链卫星精密星历的卫星能量守恒机动检测方法,选择2024年4月到5月星链各壳层344颗卫星的精密星历数据开展详细分析,比较了星链卫星在抬升、停泊、工作及下降阶段机动策略的差异,并从机动时间、机动频率、机动位置等方面深入分析了各壳层的机动策略与推力特征。结果表明相比采用半长轴法,能量法保留了星历数据原始的时间分辨率,无需滤波平滑处理即可对星链卫星轨道机动进行精准识别。轨道机动特征分析发现: 1)工作阶段,机动中间时刻星下点在赤道附近集中分布,同壳层卫星表现相同且稳定的机动频率和加速度,壳层1主要2 d/次(2天1次),机动加速度均值为2.1×10-4 m/s2,机动持续时间2-25 min不等;其余壳层1 d/次,机动加速度均值为2.2×10-4 m/2,机动持续时间2-15 min不等。2)抬升阶段的机动频率主要约为0.04 d/次,部分早期卫星约0.1 d/次,下降阶段卫星机动次数较少且频率不固定,停泊阶段为0.2-0.3 d/次,这三个阶段机动加速度量级基本一致,均值约为2.1×10-4 m/2。成果可为维护轨道安全和太空交通管理等提供数据支持与方法参考。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: The massive deployment of the Starlink constellation occupies a substantial share of low Earth orbit (LEO) resources, increasing the risks of space traffic congestion and collisions. Analysis of its orbital maneuver strategies can provide data support for space traffic management and space situational awareness. Methods: An energy-based maneuver detection method derived from the conservation of specific mechanical energy is proposed utilizing publicly released Starlink precise ephemerides. To accurately calculate the orbital energy, the 120-order SGG-UGM-2 gravity field model is applied as the background dynamic model. By differencing the energy time series between adjacent epochs, maneuvers are identified using optimized parameters, specifically an energy variation threshold of 15 m2/s2 and a minimum duration threshold of 2 minutes. The method can preserve the original one-minute temporal resolution of the ephemerides without data filtering or smoothing. Utilizing Two-Line Element (TLE) data and public databases, the Starlink constellation is categorized into distinct orbital shells based on orbital altitude and inclination, detailing the deployment status and satellite versions for each Generation 1 (Gen1) shell. Based on precise ephemerides data of 344 Starlink satellites selected from these shells from April to May 2024, orbital maneuvers during the operational, orbit-raising, parking, and descent phases are systematically identified and quantitatively analyzed. Results: 1) During the operational phase, Gen1 shell 1 satellites primarily maneuver once every two days, exhibiting a mean acceleration of 2.1×10-4 m/s2 with durations ranging from 2 to 25 minutes. Satellites in the other four Gen1 shells generally maneuver once per day, showing a mean acceleration of 2.2×10-4 m/s2 and durations between 2 and 15 minutes. During the maneuvering phase, the midpoints of the sub-satellite ground tracks are primarily distributed near the equator. 2) During the orbit-raising phase, compared to the maneuver frequency of approximately 0.1 days per maneuver reported in previous studies, the proposed energy-based method reveals a maneuver frequency of approximately 0.04 days per maneuver for most satellites, while only a small subset of early-version satellites exhibit a frequency of 0.1 days per maneuver. 3) During the parking phase, maneuvers occur every 0.2 to 0.3 days. 4) During the descent phase, maneuvers are less frequent and not fixed. The mean acceleration of the orbitraising, parking and descent phase is all 2.1×10-4 m/s2. Conclusions: The energy-based method preserves the original temporal resolution of the precise ephemerides, effectively detecting maneuvers, especially high-frequency, short-duration ones. The implementation of the energy-based method reveals distinct maneuver strategies of the Starlink constellation across different phases and shells.These strategies and the energy-based method can offer critical reference parameters for enhancing orbital safety, collision avoidance predictions, and global space traffic management in densely populated LEO environments.

     

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