基于GRACE-DSI和三维连通性识别方法的长江流域干旱特征分析

Analysis of Drought Characteristics in the Yangtze River Basin Based on GRACE-DSI and Three-Dimensional Connectivity Recognition Method

  • 摘要: 在全球变暖和干旱灾害频发的背景下,区域水资源开发利用及社会经济发展面临巨大挑战。科学精准地分析干旱事件的发展过程与特征,对于应对未来干旱灾害具有重要意义。本研究通过计算GRACE-DSI指数,并结合三维连通性识别方法,识别了长江流域2002年4月至2024年12月期间的干旱事件,提取了平均干旱强度、干旱累积缺失量、干旱强度空间分布逐月迁移过程、受旱面积和干旱发生频率等特征。结果表明:(1)经过小波低通滤波后,长江流域GRACE-DSI指数与的6个月、9个月SPEI-Z一致性最好,相关系数分别为0.70和0.69,表明GRACE-DSI指数侧重反映干旱长期积累效应;(2)(共识别出82场干旱事件,其中15场为大范围干旱((面积>25%),其影响区域及迁移特征与历史记载一致,但起止时间较文献记载的干旱延迟1~2个月;(3)流域内约70%区域的GRACE-DSI指数表现出持续缓慢下降的趋势,最显著的区域主要集中在流域中部的重庆、湖北和陕西三省交界地带,以及流域西北部的青海地区和流域东南部的湘赣地区,表明流域干旱形势趋于严峻;流域内大部分地区干旱频率≤30%,西南地区((云南省和四川省)及两湖流域((洞庭湖和鄱阳湖)为易旱区。本文结果可为大范围干旱的监测与评估提供支撑。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: Against the background of global warming and increasingly frequent drought disasters, the sustainable utilization of regional water resources and socioeconomic development are facing growing challenges. Accurate identification of individual drought events and quantitative characterization of their development, spatial migration, and overall severity are essential for drought risk assessment and water-resources management. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Drought Severity Index (GRACE-DSI) reflects integrated terrestrial water storage deficits, including variations in surface water, soil moisture, and groundwater. However, conventional GRACE-based drought studies generally analyze temporal variation or spatial distribution separately, making it difficult to distinguish multiple adjacent drought events from long-term gridded datasets while preserving their complete spatiotemporal continuity. This study therefore combines GRACE-DSI with a three-dimensional (3D) connectivity recognition method to identify hydrological drought events in the Yangtze River Basin and systematically characterize their duration, affected area, intensity, cumulative deficit, spatial migration, and occurrence frequency. Methods: Monthly terrestrial water storage data from April 2002 to December 2024 were obtained from the CSR RL06.3 Mascon product, which is provided on a 0.25° × 0.25° grid. The data gap between the GRACE and GRACE Follow-On missions from July 2017 to May 2018 was reconstructed using a backpropagation neural network. Precipitation, evapotranspiration, root-zone soil moisture, groundwater runoff, and shallow surface-water storage derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System were used as model inputs, while GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage was used as the target output. For the 2002- 2010 modeling period, the correlation coefficient, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, and root mean square error were 0.93, 0.90, and 1.02, respectively. Corresponding values for the independent evaluation period from April 2010 to June 2017 were 0.90, 0.85, and 1.14, confirming the applicability of the model to the mission gap. GRACE-DSI was then calculated by standardizing terrestrial water storage against the long-term mean and standard deviation for the corresponding calendar month. For cross-validation, 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index series were standardized using the same procedure to obtain SPEI-Z and were further processed using wavelet low-pass filtering. Grid cells with GRACE-DSI ≤ −0.8 were classified as drought cells. A 26-neighbor 3D connectivity scheme based on the Chebyshev distance was used to construct initial connected components in longitude-latitude- time space. Sensitivity experiments indicated that both the drought-occurrence area threshold and the overlap threshold between adjacent months should be set to 1.5%, which balances noise removal against the retention of drought signals in secondary sub-basins. For each identified event, drought duration, monthly and mean affected area, mean drought intensity, cumulative drought deficit, intensity-weighted drought-center migration, and drought occurrence frequency were calculated. Spatial trends in GRACEDSI were estimated using Sen’s slope. Results: After wavelet low-pass filtering, the 6- and 9-month SPEIZ series showed the strongest agreement with GRACE-DSI, with correlation coefficients of 0.70 and 0.69, respectively, whereas the correlation with the 1-month SPEI-Z was only 0.46. These results indicate that GRACE-DSI primarily represents the cumulative response of terrestrial water storage to sustained hydroclimatic deficits rather than short-term meteorological anomalies. A total of 82 drought events were identified during the study period, including 15 large-scale events whose mean drought-affected areas exceeded 25% of the basin. Their major affected regions, spatial expansion directions, and migration patterns were broadly consistent with historical drought records, although their identified onset and termination generally lagged the documented meteorological droughts by approximately 1-2 months. The 2009-2010 Southwest China drought and the 2022-2023 Yangtze River Basin drought demonstrated that the proposed method can track the expansion, migration, and recession of different types of drought events. The 2022-2023 event lasted 11 months and had a mean affected area of 47.00%, a mean drought intensity of 0.46, and a cumulative drought deficit of 6311.10, the largest among all identified events. Its mean intensity was not the highest, indicating that the severity of long-duration and large-area droughts cannot be adequately represented by mean intensity alone and should also be evaluated using cumulative deficit. Mild and moderate droughts occurred relatively frequently, whereas severe and more extreme droughts were characterized by intermittent and localized outbreaks. Approximately 70% of the basin exhibited a gradual negative trend in GRACE-DSI, indicating an intensification of terrestrial water storage deficits. The most pronounced negative trends occurred near the junction of Chongqing, Hubei, and Shaanxi, in the northwestern Qinghai region, and in the southeastern Hunan-Jiangxi region. Drought frequency was no more than 30% across most of the basin, while Yunnan and Sichuan provinces and the Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake basins were identified as drought-prone regions. Conclusions: Combining GRACE-DSI with 3D connectivity recognition enables the extraction of independent drought events from long-term gridded terrestrial water storage data while retaining their spatial extent, temporal persistence, and cross-month connectivity. The method is particularly suitable for identifying and tracking large-scale, persistent hydrological droughts and for evaluating cumulative water-storage deficits. The observed 1-2-month lag relative to meteorological drought records reflects the cumulative response and propagation of precipitation and evapotranspiration anomalies through the basin water-storage system. Nevertheless, the monthly temporal resolution and spatial smoothing of GRACE observations reduce sensitivity to short-duration, localized, and rapidly developing flash droughts. The proposed framework provides a useful basis for large-scale hydrological drought monitoring, event-based severity assessment, and long-term water-resources risk analysis in the Yangtze River Basin.

     

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