时序InSAR与集成学习模型耦合的陇南市滑坡动态易发性评价

Dynamic Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Longnan City by Coupling Time-Series InSAR and Ensemble Learning Model

  • 摘要: 滑坡易发性评价是评估滑坡发生空间概率的重要途径,然而传统方法多依赖静态因子,难以反映滑坡易发性动态演化过程。为弥补这一局限,本文以甘肃省陇南市为例,提出一种耦合“静态本底-动态因子”的滑坡动态易发性评价方法,将季度尺度动态地表形变及环境因子纳入评价框架,实现滑坡易发性的动态表征。首先选取曲率、坡度、土地利用类型等8项静态因子,基于随机森林、轻量梯度提升、梯度提升决策树和极端梯度提升四种集成学习模型生成静态本底易发性图,并优选最佳模型。其次,利用合成孔径雷达干涉测量(Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar,InSAR)获取2024年四个季度的地表累积形变量,结合同期降水量与NDVI作为动态因子,通过叠加矩阵与静态本底耦合,生成动态易发性图。最后采用SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanation)算法揭示滑坡调控机制。结果表明,极端梯度提升模型在静态本底建模中表现最佳(AUC=0.853);引入季度动态因子后,第三季度极高易发区滑坡点占比由静态本底的51.9%增至57.4%。动态易发性图显示,极高与高易发区主要分布于东北部及南部沟谷两侧,易发性等级呈明显季节变化; SHAP分析表明,土地利用类型、距道路距离和距河流距离是影响陇南市滑坡易发性的主要调控因子。本研究表明,将季度尺度的动态地表形变、降水与植被信息融入传统易发性评价框架,可有效提升滑坡风险识别能力,为陇南市滑坡灾害防治提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: Landslide Landslide susceptibility assessment is a crucial method for evaluating the spatial probability of landslide occurrence. However, conventional susceptibility assessment methods mainly rely on static conditioning factors, making it difficult to capture the temporal evolution characteristics of landslide susceptibility. To address this limitation, this study takes Longnan City, Gansu Province as a case study. Methods: A dynamic landslide susceptibility assessment framework coupling "static background-dynamic factors" was proposed. Firstly, eight static conditioning factors, including curvature, slope, and landuse type were selected. Four ensemble learning models, namely Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were employed to construct static background susceptibility maps and identify the optimal model. Secondly, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology was used to derive quarterly cumulative surface deformation for 2024, while quarterly precipitation and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for the corresponding periods were incorporated as dynamic factors. By integrating static susceptibility classes with quarterly dynamic factor levels through an overlay matrix, dynamic landslide susceptibility maps were generated for different quarters. Finally, the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was applied to interpret the contributions of controlling factors and reveal the underlying landslide mechanisms. Results: The results indicate that the XGBoost model achieved the best performance in static background modeling, with an AUC value of 0.853. After incorporating quarterly dynamic factors, the proportion of landslide points located within the very high susceptibility zone increased from 51.9% in the static background map to 57.4% in the third quarter. The third quarter exhibited the largest surface deformation occurred, corresponding to the rainy season and peak precipitation period. The dynamic susceptibility maps further reveal that areas with high and very high susceptibility are primarily distributed along valley slopes in the northeastern and southern parts of the study area, with susceptibility levels showing pronounced seasonal variations. These results demonstrate that dynamic factors provide critical temporal information that cannot be captured by conventional static susceptibility maps alone. SHAP analysis further indicates that land-use type, distance to roads, and distance to rivers are the dominant controlling factors influencing landslide susceptibility in Longnan City. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that integrating quarterly-scale dynamic surface deformation, precipitation, and vegetation information into conventional susceptibility assessment framework can effectively improve the identification of landslide-prone areas. The proposed approach provides a scientific basis for dynamic landslide hazard prevention and risk mitigation in Longnan City and similar mountainous regions.

     

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