甘肃榆中县旧庄沟8·7极端降雨诱发地质灾害链生特征及动力演化过程

Characteristics of Cascading Hazards and Dynamic Evolution Processes Induced by the Extreme Rainfall Event on August 7 in Jiuzhuanggou, Yuzhong County, Gansu Province

  • 摘要: 2025年8月7日,甘肃省榆中县遭遇极端强降雨事件,诱发多起突发性地质灾害,造成严重人员伤亡和财产损失。为揭示此次灾害的链生特征及其动力演化机制,以旧庄沟流域为研究区,综合遥感分析、实地调查及RAMMS数值模拟等方法,系统分析了极端降雨条件下地质灾害链的空间结构与动态演变过程。研究结果表明:榆中“8·7”极端降雨诱发地质灾害具有显著的群发性、广域性与链生性,形成了“山洪—滑坡—堰塞体—溃决—泥石流”的典型链式灾害过程。浅层滑移体、松散堆积物及沟谷冲洪积物在各阶段持续提供物源,使灾害链呈现出长链条、多物源叠加和链式放大的特征。数值模拟结果显示,灾害链最大运动速率可达16.64 m/s,最大堆积深度为5.62 m,模拟精度达80.2%,准确再现了灾害链的演化过程。研究表明,沟道狭窄段的堵塞—溃决过程是控制灾害链形成与放大的关键环节。本文丰富了对半干旱山区极端降雨诱发复合地质灾害链形成机制的认识,并为类似山区流域的风险识别、监测预警与防灾减灾提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: On 7 August 2025, an extreme rainfall event struck Yuzhong County, Gansu Province, China, triggering multiple rapid-onset cascading hazards and resulting in severe casualties and property losses. To reveal the cascading characteristics and dynamic evolution mechanisms of this event, the Jiuzhuanggou catchment was selected as the study area. Methods: An integrated approach combining remote sensing interpretation, field investigations, and RAMMS numerical simulations was employed to systematically analyze the spatial structure and dynamic evolution of rainfall-induced cascading hazards under extreme precipitation conditions. Results: The cascading hazards triggered by the "8·7" extreme rainfall in Yuzhong County exhibited pronounced clustering, broad spatial extent, and cascading behavior, forming a typical cascading hazard process of “flash flood–landslide–natural dam formation–dam breach–debris flow.” Shallow sliding masses, loose slope deposits, and channel alluvial materials continuously supplied sediment throughout different stages, leading to a long cascading process, sustained sediment supply from multiple sources, and progressive amplification. Numerical simulations showed that the maximum flow velocity reached 16.64 m/s and the maximum deposition depth was 5.62 m. With an overall simulation accuracy of 80.2%, the model effectively reproduced the dynamic evolution of the cascading hazard. The results further indicate that blockage–breach processes in narrow channel sections were the key mechanisms controlling the formation and amplification of cascading hazard. Conclusions: This study improves understanding of how cascading hazards develop under extreme rainfall in semi-arid mountainous areas and offers insights for hazard identification, monitoring and early warning, and disaster prevention and mitigation in similar mountain catchments.

     

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